TickerTen Market Analysis | April 15, 2025

TickerTen

Expert Market Analysis

Daily Market Report

April 15, 2025

Markets Edge Higher as Investors Weigh Tariff Developments

Wall Street is trading slightly higher today as investors assess the evolving landscape of trade policies and digest recent earnings reports from major financial institutions. Yesterday’s momentum carries forward with cautious optimism amid ongoing tariff uncertainty.

Market Snapshot (as of 10:00 AM ET)

Dow: +0.18% | S&P 500: +0.24% | Nasdaq: +0.21%

Yesterday’s Market Recap

On Monday, April 14, 2025, U.S. markets closed higher as investors welcomed the Trump administration’s tariff exemptions for key consumer electronics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each gained 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%. Despite the positive close, major indices finished well off their session highs after an early rally faded during midday trading.

Technology stocks led the advances after the administration exempted smartphones, computers, and semiconductors from the new “reciprocal” tariffs. Apple shares, which had been among the hardest hit following the tariff announcements, rebounded sharply but ultimately closed with a 4.22% loss after giving up earlier gains.

In earnings news, Goldman Sachs reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results with earnings per share of $14.12, well above the $12.35 analyst consensus. The investment bank benefited from robust equities trading revenue, which surged 27% to $4.19 billion.

Today’s Market Drivers

Markets are edging higher today as investors hold onto hopes for further tariff relief, particularly in the auto sector. President Trump hinted at potential exemptions for the 25% tariffs on auto imports, providing some optimism. However, the Commerce Department is proceeding with investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports, indicating new tariffs may be forthcoming in these sectors.

Financial stocks are outperforming today, with the sector gaining 0.9% after Bank of America reported Q1 earnings of $0.90 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.82. Revenue also beat forecasts at $27.51 billion versus the $26.99 billion consensus. Citigroup similarly topped estimates, further bolstering the banking sector.

Treasury yields continue their volatile run, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.46% following last week’s dramatic moves. The BofA global fund manager survey revealed that investors have significantly reduced their U.S. stock holdings over the past two months amid growing policy uncertainty.

Technical analysts note that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average slipped below its 200-day moving average on Monday, creating a “death cross” pattern that suggests a potential longer-term downtrend developing from the recent correction.

Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

In this volatile trading environment, our analysis points to several compelling opportunities that combine strong fundamentals with favorable technical setups. We’ve identified 10 stocks that offer attractive risk-reward profiles in the current market landscape, with price targets spanning from near-term (1-day) to longer-term (90-day) horizons.

1. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Technology Value

Current Price

$159.07

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.2

Recommended Stop Loss: $148.00

Analysis

Alphabet remains well-positioned despite recent market volatility, with its core business demonstrating resilience. The company’s search advertising business provides stable cash flow, while Cloud and YouTube segments offer substantial growth avenues. Recent AI integrations across its product suite are enhancing competitive positioning while creating new revenue opportunities.

The stock has shown impressive recovery from recent lows, gaining 9.89% on April 9 during the broader market rebound. Though it gave up some gains in subsequent sessions, the overall trend remains constructive with solid support around the $150 level. The company’s strong balance sheet with over $100 billion in cash provides substantial downside protection during market uncertainty.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$162.00	+1.84%
3-Day	$165.50	+4.04%
5-Day	$168.00	+5.61%
30-Day	$175.00	+10.01%
90-Day	$190.00	+19.45%

Best Case Scenario: Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings, accelerated cloud growth, and tariff exemptions push the stock toward $210, representing 32% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Regulatory pressures intensify and digital ad spending weakens, potentially driving shares down to $140, representing a 12% downside.

2. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

E-commerce Cloud

Current Price

$181.39

April 15, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.8

Recommended Stop Loss: $170.00

Analysis

Amazon has demonstrated resilience during the recent market volatility, with its diversified business model providing multiple growth avenues. AWS continues to be the profit engine, while the core retail business shows improved efficiency. The company’s growing advertising segment offers an additional high-margin revenue stream, contributing significantly to profitability.

Following the tariff-induced market turbulence, Amazon shares have stabilized, benefiting from the electronics tariff exemptions announced by the Trump administration. The company’s advanced logistics network and diversified revenue streams provide a strong competitive moat. Management’s continued focus on cost efficiency and AI integration should drive margin expansion in the coming quarters.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$184.00	+1.44%
3-Day	$188.50	+3.92%
5-Day	$192.00	+5.85%
30-Day	$200.00	+10.26%
90-Day	$215.00	+18.53%

Best Case Scenario: AWS growth re-accelerates, retail margins expand beyond expectations, and the advertising business continues its rapid growth, potentially driving shares to $230, representing 26.8% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Cloud competition intensifies while consumer spending weakens amid economic concerns, potentially pushing shares down to $165, representing 9.0% downside.

3. Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

Financial Dividend

Current Price

$42.75

April 15, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5

Recommended Stop Loss: $39.50

Analysis

Bank of America reported impressive Q1 2025 results today, with earnings of $0.90 per share significantly exceeding analyst expectations of $0.82. Revenue also beat forecasts at $27.51 billion versus the $26.99 billion consensus. The bank has demonstrated strong resilience during the recent market volatility, with its diversified business model providing stability.

The company’s net interest income remains robust despite the challenging interest rate environment, while its investment banking division has capitalized on market volatility. Management highlighted potential rate cuts later this year as a possible tailwind for loan growth. The stock has outperformed the broader financial sector year-to-date, reflecting investor confidence in the bank’s execution.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$43.25	+1.17%
3-Day	$44.50	+4.09%
5-Day	$45.75	+7.02%
30-Day	$48.00	+12.28%
90-Day	$52.00	+21.64%

Best Case Scenario: Multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts drive loan demand while investment banking activity accelerates, potentially pushing shares to $55, representing 28.6% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Economic conditions deteriorate leading to increased loan loss provisions, potentially driving shares down to $37, representing 13.5% downside.

4. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

Semiconductor AI

Current Price

$157.08

April 11, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.2

Recommended Stop Loss: $145.00

Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) remains the critical infrastructure provider for the AI revolution. As the world’s leading semiconductor foundry, TSMC produces chips for virtually all major technology companies, including Nvidia, Apple, and AMD. The company’s technological leadership in advanced nodes positions it perfectly to capitalize on the continued growth in AI computing demand.

While semiconductor tariffs remain a concern, with the Trump administration advancing probes into the sector, TSMC’s strategic importance to the global tech supply chain provides it with some insulation. The company’s expansion of U.S. manufacturing facilities, including its Arizona plants, helps mitigate geopolitical risks. Today’s news that Taiwan will simulate the impact of potential U.S. tariffs on its semiconductor sector highlights the strategic importance of this industry.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$159.00	+1.22%
3-Day	$162.50	+3.45%
5-Day	$165.00	+5.04%
30-Day	$170.00	+8.23%
90-Day	$180.00	+14.59%

Best Case Scenario: Tariff concerns ease while demand for advanced nodes accelerates beyond expectations, potentially driving shares to $190, representing 21% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Tariffs are imposed on semiconductor imports while geopolitical tensions intensify, potentially pushing shares down to $135, representing 14% downside.

5. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Technology Cloud

Current Price

$391.69

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.0

Recommended Stop Loss: $375.00

Analysis

Microsoft continues to demonstrate exceptional business resilience and growth across its three major segments: Productivity & Business Processes, Intelligent Cloud, and More Personal Computing. The company’s Azure cloud platform remains a key growth driver, with generative AI capabilities driving increased customer adoption and consumption.

The company’s strategic partnership with OpenAI has positioned it as a leader in the enterprise AI race, with AI integration across its product suite driving increased customer value and monetization opportunities. Microsoft’s Office and LinkedIn businesses continue to show robust growth, providing stable cash flows amid economic uncertainty. The recent tariff exemptions for computers benefit Microsoft’s hardware business.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$395.00	+0.84%
3-Day	$400.00	+2.12%
5-Day	$405.00	+3.40%
30-Day	$420.00	+7.23%
90-Day	$440.00	+12.33%

Best Case Scenario: Azure growth accelerates beyond expectations while AI integration drives higher margins across the product portfolio, potentially pushing shares to $460, representing 17.4% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Cloud growth slows amid increased competition while economic conditions deteriorate, potentially driving shares down to $360, representing 8.1% downside.

6. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Retail Dividend

Current Price

$731.50

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5

Recommended Stop Loss: $695.00

Analysis

Costco continues to execute flawlessly in the retail space, with its membership model providing predictable revenue streams and customer loyalty. The company recently reported March comparable sales growth of 7.7%, exceeding analyst expectations and demonstrating continued momentum. Membership renewal rates remain at all-time highs, providing a strong foundation for future growth.

While tariff concerns have weighed on retail stocks broadly, Costco’s unique business model and diverse supplier relationships provide insulation against these headwinds. The company’s pricing power, scale advantages, and loyal customer base position it well to navigate potential inflation from tariffs. Management has indicated it could absorb some cost increases to maintain its value proposition, which should protect market share during this uncertain period.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$735.00	+0.48%
3-Day	$742.00	+1.44%
5-Day	$748.00	+2.26%
30-Day	$760.00	+3.90%
90-Day	$790.00	+7.99%

Best Case Scenario: Membership fee increases drive higher-than-expected growth while international expansion accelerates, potentially pushing shares to $825, representing 12.8% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Consumer spending weakens significantly amid economic concerns, potentially driving shares down to $685, representing 6.4% downside.

7. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)

Semiconductor AI

Current Price

$110.71

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.0

Recommended Stop Loss: $100.00

Analysis

Despite recent volatility related to tariff concerns, Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI-focused semiconductors. The company’s GPUs power the vast majority of AI workloads globally, with demand continuing to outstrip supply for high-end data center products. The company’s recent stock split has made shares more accessible to retail investors, potentially broadening its investor base.

While the Commerce Department’s investigation into semiconductor imports creates uncertainty, Nvidia’s strategic importance to U.S. technological leadership provides some insulation. The company’s newest Blackwell architecture is set to drive the next wave of AI adoption, with significant performance and efficiency improvements over the current generation. Supply chain diversification efforts should help mitigate any potential tariff impacts.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$112.50	+1.62%
3-Day	$115.00	+3.87%
5-Day	$118.00	+6.59%
30-Day	$125.00	+12.91%
90-Day	$135.00	+21.94%

Best Case Scenario: Semiconductor tariffs are avoided while Blackwell adoption exceeds expectations, potentially pushing shares to $150, representing 35.5% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Tariffs are implemented on semiconductor imports while competitive pressure intensifies, potentially driving shares down to $90, representing 18.7% downside.

8. AT&T Inc. (T)

Telecom Dividend

Current Price

$21.85

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.5

Recommended Stop Loss: $20.50

Analysis

AT&T has been one of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks in 2025, with a year-to-date return of 24.2%. The company’s refocused strategy on its core telecommunications business is bearing fruit, with stable wireless subscriber growth and improved free cash flow generation. The dividend yield of approximately 5.5% provides attractive income in the current environment.

The company’s defensive business model positions it well amid economic uncertainty, with telecommunications services representing essential spending for consumers and businesses. AT&T’s continued debt reduction efforts strengthen its balance sheet, while fiber broadband expansion provides an additional growth avenue. The stock’s relatively low beta offers stability during market volatility, as demonstrated during the recent tariff-induced selloff.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$22.00	+0.69%
3-Day	$22.25	+1.83%
5-Day	$22.50	+2.97%
30-Day	$23.00	+5.26%
90-Day	$24.50	+12.13%

Best Case Scenario: Free cash flow exceeds management targets, debt reduction accelerates, and dividend growth resumes, potentially pushing shares to $26, representing 19.0% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Wireless competition intensifies and 5G investments generate lower-than-expected returns, potentially driving shares down to $20, representing 8.5% downside.

9. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Energy Dividend

Current Price

$118.75

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.8

Recommended Stop Loss: $110.00

Analysis

Exxon Mobil offers an attractive combination of value, income, and inflation protection in the current market environment. The company’s strategic acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances its position in the Permian Basin, providing low-cost production growth for years to come. The dividend yield of approximately 3.4% provides attractive income with a track record of annual increases spanning decades.

The energy sector has demonstrated resilience during recent market volatility, with Exxon outperforming the broader market year-to-date. While oil prices have moderated from recent highs, Exxon’s low-cost production and integrated business model provide earnings stability. The company’s recent investments in carbon capture technology and hydrogen position it well for the energy transition over the longer term.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$120.00	+1.05%
3-Day	$122.00	+2.74%
5-Day	$124.00	+4.42%
30-Day	$130.00	+9.47%
90-Day	$135.00	+13.68%

Best Case Scenario: Oil prices strengthen amid supply constraints while synergies from the Pioneer acquisition exceed expectations, potentially pushing shares to $145, representing 22.1% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Oil prices decline significantly amid economic concerns and reduced demand, potentially driving shares down to $105, representing 11.6% downside.

10. Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

Healthcare Dividend

Current Price

$132.40

April 14, 2025

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.0

Recommended Stop Loss: $125.00

Analysis

Merck offers an attractive combination of defensive characteristics and growth potential in the current market environment. The company’s oncology franchise, led by Keytruda, continues to drive strong revenue growth, with multiple new indications expanding its addressable market. While pharmaceutical tariffs remain a potential concern with the Trump administration’s recent probe, Merck’s strong U.S. manufacturing presence provides some insulation.

The company’s recent acquisitions, including Prometheus Biosciences, strengthen its pipeline and reduce reliance on Keytruda over the longer term. Merck’s animal health division provides stable, growing cash flows complementing the human health business. The dividend yield of approximately 2.4%, combined with consistent annual increases, offers an attractive income component during market uncertainty.

Time Frame	Price Target	Potential Return
1-Day	$133.50	+0.83%
3-Day	$135.00	+1.96%
5-Day	$137.00	+3.47%
30-Day	$140.00	+5.74%
90-Day	$147.50	+11.40%

Best Case Scenario: Keytruda sales exceed expectations while pipeline candidates advance ahead of schedule, potentially pushing shares to $155, representing 17.1% upside.

Worst Case Scenario: Pharmaceutical tariffs are implemented while competition intensifies in key therapeutic areas, potentially driving shares down to $120, representing 9.4% downside.

Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

As we navigate the ongoing tariff uncertainty and volatile market environment, we recommend a balanced approach to portfolio construction. The S&P 500’s recent “death cross” technical pattern suggests caution, but strong corporate earnings could provide support at current levels.

For the near term, we favor companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power, and limited direct exposure to tariff-sensitive supply chains. Our top 10 selections reflect this strategy, with a mix of technology leaders, financial services, defensive consumer names, and energy stocks.

While semiconductor and pharmaceutical stocks face potential tariff headwinds following the Commerce Department’s recent investigations, we believe the market has partially priced in these risks, creating selective opportunities for long-term investors. Companies with domestic manufacturing presence or diversified global supply chains should fare better in this environment.

As earnings season accelerates, company commentary regarding tariff impacts and supply chain adjustments will be closely watched. We expect continued volatility but believe patient investors who use a dollar-cost averaging approach will be rewarded over time. The mix of growth and value stocks in our selections provides balance regardless of which investment style leads in the coming months.

Important Disclaimer

The information contained in this report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. TickerTen’s market analysis and stock recommendations are based on technical and fundamental research but may not account for your individual circumstances or investment objectives. Always conduct your own research and consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in securities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. This report is not an offer to buy or sell securities.

April 15, 2025

TickerTen Market Analysis – April 14, 2025

TickerTen

April 14, 2025

Tech Rallies as Tariff Exemptions Boost Market Sentiment

Trump Administration’s Surprise Tariff Relief for Electronics Sector Drives Major Index Gains

TickerTen Research Team

Published: 10:30 AM ET

Market Overview

U.S. equity markets are surging on Monday as investors respond positively to the Trump administration’s surprise decision to exempt smartphones, computers, and semiconductor components from his “reciprocal” tariffs. This unexpected policy shift has particularly boosted tech stocks and is driving a broad-based market rally to start the week.

As of mid-morning trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 543 points (1.4%), while the S&P 500 is up 1.8% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has surged 2.2%. The rally represents a significant sentiment shift after weeks of volatility driven by concerns about escalating trade tensions.

Key Market Indicators (as of 10:00 AM ET)

Dow Jones

+543 pts (1.4%)

S&P 500

+1.8%

Nasdaq

+2.2%

Yesterday’s Market Action

Friday’s trading session (April 11) concluded with modest gains as investors cautiously positioned ahead of the weekend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 gained 0.68%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.11%. Trading volume was below average as market participants remained tentative amid ongoing concerns about trade policy volatility.

What’s Driving Today’s Market

The primary catalyst for today’s rally is the White House’s announcement late Friday that it would exempt smartphones, computers, and semiconductor components from the recently announced reciprocal tariffs. This move has provided significant relief to tech giants like Apple, which has rallied over 6% in early trading, and Nvidia, which is up more than 3%.

However, market uncertainty persists as President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested on Sunday that these exemptions aren’t permanent. Trump clarified in a Truth Social post that these products are still “subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’” This ambiguity has created what Wedbush analyst Dan Ives described as “mass uncertainty, chaos, and confusion” despite the positive initial market reaction.

Adding to the market narrative, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen commented this morning that “recession probabilities have gone way up” due to the tariffs. She noted that estimates suggest the impact on consumers “could be in the region of $4,000” if tariffs remain at current levels, representing a significant hit to household income.

First-quarter earnings season is also ramping up, with Goldman Sachs reporting stronger-than-expected results this morning. The investment bank posted earnings of $14.12 per share against expectations of $12.35, with revenue of $15.06 billion exceeding estimates of $14.81 billion. This positive start to bank earnings has further supported market sentiment.

TickerTen’s Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

Amid this complex market environment, our analysis identifies 10 stocks well-positioned to navigate the current challenges while offering compelling upside potential. Our selection considers recent market dynamics, technical indicators, fundamental strength, and strategic positioning relative to current policy developments.

1. Apple Inc. (AAPL)

$198.15 +6.48%

Apple emerges as our top pick following the tariff exemption for smartphones and computers, which represents a major relief for the company’s supply chain and profit margins. After dropping nearly $640 billion in market cap following the initial tariff announcement, AAPL has begun to recover, surging 6.48% on Friday and continuing its momentum today.

1-Day: $204-$206

3-Day: $208-$212

5-Day: $215-$220

30-Day: $225-$235

90-Day: $245-$260

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$185.00 (-6.6%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:3.2

Analysis:

Apple has demonstrated remarkable resilience amid recent market turbulence, with its latest rally fueled by the tariff exemption announcement. The company’s diversified revenue streams, strong services growth, and upcoming product cycle (including new AI capabilities in iOS 18) position it well for continued growth. Recent volatility creates an attractive entry point with the worst-case scenario largely priced out and significant technical support established around $185. In our best-case scenario, Apple could reach $260 within 90 days as market confidence in tech stabilizes and its AI strategy becomes more clearly articulated.

2. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

$110.93 +2.24%

NVIDIA continues to dominate the AI chip market, and the exemption of semiconductor components from tariffs provides a significant tailwind for the company’s operations. The stock has begun recovering from its recent pullback with a 2.24% gain on Friday and further upside momentum today.

1-Day: $114-$116

3-Day: $118-$122

5-Day: $125-$130

30-Day: $140-$150

90-Day: $170-$185

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$96.30 (-13.2%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.8

Analysis:

NVIDIA remains the undisputed leader in AI acceleration hardware, with demand continuing to outstrip supply for its state-of-the-art GPUs. The company’s upcoming Blackwell architecture represents another significant leap in AI computing capability, and we believe the current valuation doesn’t fully reflect NVIDIA’s medium-term growth potential. Despite competitive pressures from AMD and custom silicon initiatives, NVIDIA’s software ecosystem (CUDA) provides a substantial moat. The tariff exemption for semiconductors removes a significant near-term headwind, though ongoing supply chain disruptions represent the primary risk. We see a clear path to $170+ by mid-summer as AI investment continues to accelerate globally.

3. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

$184.87 +2.75%

Amazon has positioned itself at the intersection of multiple growth vectors – e-commerce, cloud computing, and AI services. The company will benefit from semiconductor tariff exemptions for its AWS infrastructure and has shown strong resilience during recent market volatility.

1-Day: $188-$190

3-Day: $192-$195

5-Day: $195-$200

30-Day: $205-$215

90-Day: $230-$240

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$170.66 (-7.7%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:3.0

Analysis:

Amazon stands out as a compelling investment given its diversified business model and leadership across multiple high-growth sectors. AWS continues to dominate the cloud infrastructure market and is increasingly focusing on AI services, which represents a significant growth opportunity. Meanwhile, the e-commerce business has successfully navigated inflation pressures and is showing improved profitability. Amazon’s commitment to spend over $100 billion in capital expenditures this year, with the “vast majority” going to AI for AWS, demonstrates the company’s long-term strategic vision. The worst-case scenario would involve margin compression from increased competition in cloud services, but we believe Amazon’s scale advantages and ecosystem will continue to drive growth across all segments.

4. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

$388.45 +2.05%

Microsoft continues to execute flawlessly across its core businesses while establishing itself as a leader in the AI transformation. The company’s Azure cloud platform and strategic partnership with OpenAI position it at the forefront of enterprise AI adoption.

1-Day: $395-$400

3-Day: $400-$405

5-Day: $405-$410

30-Day: $415-$425

90-Day: $440-$460

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$354.56 (-8.7%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.5

Analysis:

Microsoft represents one of the most balanced investments in the technology sector, combining stable recurring revenue from its software businesses with high-growth opportunities in cloud and AI. The company’s Copilot strategy is rapidly advancing AI integration across its product suite, creating new revenue streams and expanding its total addressable market. Microsoft’s enterprise relationships and cloud infrastructure provide significant competitive advantages as organizations increasingly adopt AI technologies. While valuation presents some risk, Microsoft’s execution excellence and diversified revenue streams justify a premium multiple. The worst-case scenario would involve slower-than-expected monetization of AI investments, but we believe the company’s underlying business strength provides a substantial margin of safety.

5. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

$543.57 +1.51%

Meta has successfully executed its “Year of Efficiency” strategy and is now pivoting toward AI-driven growth. The company’s advertising business has rebounded strongly, and its AI investments are beginning to yield tangible results across its family of apps.

1-Day: $550-$555

3-Day: $560-$570

5-Day: $575-$585

30-Day: $600-$620

90-Day: $650-$680

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$510.45 (-6.1%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.7

Analysis:

Meta has undergone a remarkable transformation, effectively addressing concerns about excessive spending while maintaining innovation across its core platforms. The company’s advertising business has benefited from improved targeting capabilities and a strong e-commerce environment. Meta’s Llama AI models are gaining traction as open-source alternatives to proprietary solutions, and the company is rapidly integrating AI capabilities across Instagram, Facebook, and WhatsApp. While regulatory risks and competition for user attention remain concerns, Meta’s current valuation does not fully reflect its improved margin profile and growth potential. The recent volatility provides an attractive entry point for investors, with strong technical support around the $510 level.

6. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

$157.14 +2.77%

Alphabet continues to dominate digital advertising while making significant strides in AI and cloud computing. The company’s Google Search business remains a cash cow, funding ambitious investments across multiple growth vectors.

1-Day: $160-$162

3-Day: $163-$165

5-Day: $166-$170

30-Day: $175-$180

90-Day: $190-$200

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$144.70 (-7.9%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.9

Analysis:

Alphabet presents a compelling investment case with its combination of stable core businesses and emerging growth opportunities. The company’s Google Search business continues to generate substantial free cash flow, while YouTube and Google Cloud are delivering accelerating growth. Alphabet’s AI developments, including Gemini models and integration across its product suite, position it to maintain its competitive advantage in search and expand into new markets. Regulatory concerns remain a risk factor, but we believe these are largely reflected in the company’s relatively modest valuation compared to peers. The worst-case scenario would involve disruption to the search business from new AI-driven interfaces, but Alphabet’s vast data advantages and distribution should enable it to adapt successfully.

7. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)

$157.08 +0.69%

As the world’s largest semiconductor foundry, TSMC is critical to the global technology supply chain. The company stands to benefit significantly from the tariff exemptions for semiconductor components while seeing continued strong demand for its advanced manufacturing processes.

1-Day: $160-$162

3-Day: $165-$168

5-Day: $170-$175

30-Day: $180-$185

90-Day: $200-$210

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$141.37 (-10.0%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.5

Analysis:

TSMC’s strategic importance in the global technology ecosystem makes it a compelling long-term investment. The company maintains a substantial technological lead in advanced semiconductor manufacturing, with its 3nm process now in high-volume production and development of 2nm technology progressing well. Demand from AI applications continues to accelerate, with customers like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple relying on TSMC’s manufacturing capabilities. While geopolitical risks related to Taiwan remain a concern, TSMC’s ongoing geographic diversification, including new facilities in Arizona and Japan, help mitigate this risk. The tariff exemption for semiconductor components removes a significant near-term headwind, creating an attractive entry point for investors looking for broad exposure to the AI computing revolution.

8. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

$252.31 +0.19%

Tesla combines leadership in electric vehicles with emerging opportunities in energy storage, AI, and robotics. Despite recent volatility, the company’s long-term growth narrative remains compelling as it expands its product portfolio and manufacturing capabilities.

1-Day: $255-$260

3-Day: $265-$275

5-Day: $280-$290

30-Day: $300-$320

90-Day: $350-$380

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$221.86 (-12.1%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.3

Analysis:

Tesla represents a higher-risk, higher-reward opportunity within our selection. The company faces increasing competition in electric vehicles but maintains significant advantages in manufacturing efficiency, battery technology, and software capabilities. Recent volatility following disappointing Q1 delivery numbers has created a potential entry point, with the stock having stabilized above the $220 level. Key upcoming catalysts include the potential reveal of the robotaxi platform, progress on Full Self-Driving technology, and the ramp of new manufacturing capacity in Mexico. The worst-case scenario involves prolonged margin compression and delayed product launches, while the best case could see Tesla establish leadership in autonomous transportation and expand successfully into new markets like humanoid robotics and energy storage.

9. UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)

$455.75 +0.83%

UnitedHealth Group provides a defensive yet growth-oriented exposure to the healthcare sector. The company’s integrated model combining insurance with healthcare delivery through Optum creates significant competitive advantages and multiple growth vectors.

1-Day: $460-$465

3-Day: $470-$475

5-Day: $480-$485

30-Day: $500-$510

90-Day: $530-$550

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$425.00 (-6.7%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:3.1

Analysis:

UnitedHealth Group offers a compelling combination of stability and growth potential, making it an attractive addition to portfolios during periods of market uncertainty. The company’s scale and integrated approach to healthcare create significant competitive advantages, while its Optum businesses provide diversification beyond traditional health insurance. UnitedHealth is also investing heavily in technology and data analytics to drive operational improvements and enhance patient outcomes. While regulatory risks remain a concern, particularly around Medicare Advantage reimbursement rates, UnitedHealth’s diversified business model helps mitigate these risks. The company offers defensive characteristics with healthcare being less sensitive to economic cycles, while still providing exposure to structural growth trends in the sector.

10. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

$708.24 +0.45%

Costco combines defensive consumer staples exposure with a high-quality business model based on membership fees and exceptional value. The company has demonstrated consistent execution across economic cycles and continues to gain market share.

1-Day: $712-$715

3-Day: $715-$725

5-Day: $730-$740

30-Day: $750-$765

90-Day: $780-$800

Risk Assessment:

Low

High

Stop Loss:

$670.00 (-5.4%)

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.4

Analysis:

Costco provides portfolio stability with its recession-resistant business model and consistent growth profile. The company’s membership model creates predictable recurring revenue, while its focus on value and quality drives strong customer loyalty with renewal rates consistently above 90%. Recent same-store sales growth has exceeded expectations, and the company continues to expand internationally while gradually building its e-commerce capabilities. While the stock’s premium valuation presents some risk, Costco’s exceptional execution and potential for a special dividend or membership fee increase in the coming year provide catalysts for continued outperformance. The company’s focus on employee welfare and customer satisfaction creates a sustainable competitive advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate.

Market Outlook and Strategy

The market’s positive reaction to the tariff exemptions provides a welcome relief rally, but significant uncertainty remains regarding the administration’s long-term trade policy. As former Treasury Secretary Yellen noted this morning, recession probabilities have increased, and investors should position portfolios accordingly.

Our top 10 stock picks are designed to balance growth opportunities with defensive positioning. The technology sector stands to benefit from the tariff exemptions, while healthcare and consumer staples selections provide stability against potential economic weakness.

For investors looking to capitalize on current market conditions, we recommend a staged approach to building positions, using the recent volatility to gradually accumulate shares in high-quality companies. The stocks in our selection have demonstrated resilience during the recent market turbulence and possess the fundamental strengths to navigate an uncertain economic environment.

As earnings season accelerates in the coming weeks, company-specific catalysts will become increasingly important drivers of performance. Maintaining disciplined risk management through appropriate position sizing and adherence to stop-loss levels will be crucial in navigating potential volatility.

Disclaimer:

The information provided in this report is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. TickerTen Research Team’s opinions are based on current market conditions, may differ from those of other investment professionals, and are subject to change without notice. The financial instruments or transactions mentioned may not be suitable for all investors, and investors must make their own investment decisions using their own independent advisors as they believe necessary. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The price targets mentioned are based on technical and fundamental analysis as of the date of this report and may change based on future market conditions.

TickerTen Research Team

The TickerTen Research Team combines expertise in technical analysis, fundamental valuation, and macroeconomic research to identify compelling investment opportunities across global markets. With decades of collective experience in financial analysis, our team provides actionable insights for investors navigating complex market environments.

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April 14, 2025
TickerTen Weekly Market Report – April 12, 2025

TickerTen

Professional Stock Analysis Team

Weekly Market Report

April 12, 2025

DOW 40,212.71 +1.6% S&P 500 5,363.36 +1.8% NASDAQ 16,724.46 +2.1% GOLD $3,255 +2.4% OIL $61.50 +2.4% 10-YR 4.492% +0.5% BITCOIN $83,500 +5.8%

Market Overview: A Week of Wild Swings

One of the most tumultuous weeks in years for stocks ended with major U.S. indexes higher, highlighting the market volatility unleashed by President Trump’s trade war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 619 points (1.6%) on Friday, despite fresh signs of strain on the U.S. economy. This capped a remarkable week that saw multiple 2,000+ point intraday swings.

For the week, the Dow gained 5.0%, the S&P 500 added 5.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 7.3%, marking its best weekly performance since November 2022. The rally came in the face of China raising retaliatory tariffs to 125% and worrying consumer sentiment data that showed Americans bracing for prices to surge 6.7% in the year ahead—a level of pessimism about costs last seen in the early 1980s.

Market sentiment was buoyed when the White House announced it had 15 trade-deal offers on the table, and despite recent volatility, Federal Reserve officials indicated markets are functioning well. However, New York Fed President John Williams warned that growth could slow and inflation could rise to 4% due to the tariff situation.

Weekly Market Stats

Dow Jones +5.0%

S&P 500 +5.7%

Nasdaq +7.3%

10-Year Treasury Yield +0.5%

VIX -23.5%

YTD: Dow -5.5% • S&P -8.8% • Nasdaq -13.4%

Key Market Drivers This Week

Tariff Volatility

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs created market turbulence, with stocks experiencing historic swings.

Fed Outlook

NY Fed President Williams warned of higher inflation (potentially 4%) and lower growth due to tariff impacts.

Bank Earnings

JPMorgan, BlackRock, and other banks reported strong earnings despite concerns about “considerable turbulence” ahead.

Treasury Yields

The 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest one-week rise since 2001, reaching 4.492%, causing concerns about selling pressure.

Next Week Outlook

Looking ahead to next week, markets will continue processing the impact of trade tensions and tariff policies. Key factors to watch include:

Earnings Season Acceleration

Several major companies will report earnings next week, with investors closely watching for guidance on tariff impacts. Many companies are expected to withdraw full-year guidance amid uncertainty.

Economic Data Releases

Key indicators including retail sales, industrial production, and housing starts will provide insights into the economy’s resilience amid mounting trade pressures.

Trade Negotiations

The White House mentioned 15 trade deal offers are on the table. Markets will react to any developments in these negotiations, especially with EU officials meeting with U.S. counterparts on Monday.

Fed Commentary

Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak next week. Their comments on inflation expectations and potential policy responses will be closely monitored.

Overall, we expect continued volatility as market participants assess the long-term implications of trade policies while seeking clarity on corporate outlooks. Defensive positioning remains prudent, with selective opportunities in sectors less exposed to tariff impacts.

Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

Semiconductor & Infrastructure Software

$185.25

+5.8% on Friday

Analysis

Broadcom has demonstrated exceptional resilience amidst the recent tariff-induced market volatility. While many semiconductor stocks plummeted on tariff concerns, Broadcom rebounded strongly, ending the week solidly above its April 2 levels when Trump unveiled his aggressive tariff plans. The company’s diversified revenue streams, strong AI positioning, and strategic acquisitions have created a moat against tariff impacts.

The company’s recent confirmation of its AI outlook is particularly promising. With AI infrastructure spending projected to grow substantially in 2025, Broadcom’s networking chips and custom AI solutions position it perfectly to capitalize on this trend. Despite potential supply chain disruptions, analysts expect Broadcom’s earnings to grow by 36% in the current fiscal year.

A potential tariff exemption would significantly boost the stock, but even without one, the company’s global manufacturing presence allows it to navigate trade tensions more effectively than peers with U.S.-centered production.

Price Targets

$165 $250

Current Price $185.25

1-Day Target $189.50

3-Day Target $195.00

5-Day Target $203.00

30-Day Target $218.00

90-Day Target $247.80

Stop Loss $172.00

Best Case Scenario

If Broadcom secures tariff exemptions and AI spending accelerates faster than expected, the stock could reach $270-280 by year-end. Strong VMware synergies could further boost margins beyond current expectations.

Worst Case Scenario

Extended trade war disruptions could delay AI spending and impact supply chains, potentially pushing the stock down to $155-165 range. However, Broadcom’s diversified business model provides meaningful downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:3.5

Favorable

With semiconductor stocks oversold due to tariff concerns, Broadcom offers an attractive entry point with significant upside potential and limited downside risk. The $13 potential downside versus $62 potential upside creates a highly favorable risk/reward profile.

VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)

Internet Infrastructure & Services

$248.12

+2.3% on Friday

Analysis

VeriSign has emerged as a standout performer in 2025, delivering a 22.7% year-to-date return and significantly outperforming the broader market. As the exclusive registry operator for .com and .net domains, VeriSign enjoys a near-monopoly position that provides exceptional stability even during economic turbulence. This defensive characteristic makes it particularly attractive in the current tariff-volatile environment.

The company’s business model is remarkably insulated from tariff impacts, with minimal exposure to supply chain disruptions or manufacturing concerns. Its high-margin, subscription-based revenue stream generates predictable cash flows that support both growth initiatives and shareholder returns. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway maintains a significant position in the stock, further validating its quality.

Recent analyst projections point to 4.2% revenue growth in 2025 and a stronger 8.5% increase in EPS, with potential upside if domain registrations accelerate as more businesses continue digital transformation efforts.

Price Targets

$230 $290

Current Price $248.12

1-Day Target $251.00

3-Day Target $255.00

5-Day Target $260.00

30-Day Target $265.00

90-Day Target $275.00

Stop Loss $232.50

Best Case Scenario

If digital transformation accelerates and domain registrations exceed expectations, VeriSign could push toward $290-300 by year-end. The company’s pricing power and potential for expanded services could drive additional upside.

Worst Case Scenario

A severe economic downturn could modestly impact new domain registrations, potentially causing the stock to retreat to the $225-230 range. However, the company’s recurring revenue model limits downside even in stressed scenarios.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.7

Favorable

VeriSign offers an attractive balance of defensive characteristics and steady growth potential. With approximately $15.50 downside risk versus $42 upside potential, the risk/reward profile is compelling for investors seeking stability in volatile markets without sacrificing growth potential.

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO)

Insurance Brokerage

$116.98

+1.2% on Friday

Analysis

Brown & Brown has been a standout performer in 2025, delivering an impressive 21.9% year-to-date gain while the broader market has struggled. As one of the largest insurance brokerages in the U.S., the company benefits from the hardening insurance market (rising premiums) while being largely insulated from tariff impacts, making it an ideal defensive play in the current environment.

The company’s strong Q4 2024 results, released in January 2025, demonstrated robust 13.8% organic revenue growth, significantly outpacing industry averages. This performance highlights Brown & Brown’s superior execution and the ongoing benefits of its acquisition strategy. With over 300 offices across the U.S. and select international locations, the company has built a scalable platform that consistently delivers EPS growth in the high teens.

Insurance brokerage businesses are particularly attractive in uncertain economic environments, as they generate recurring revenue through commissions and fees without taking underwriting risk. Brown & Brown’s focus on middle-market commercial insurance further insulates it from economic volatility while providing ample cross-selling opportunities.

Price Targets

$100 $135

Current Price $116.98

1-Day Target $118.25

3-Day Target $120.50

5-Day Target $122.75

30-Day Target $126.00

90-Day Target $132.00

Stop Loss $108.50

Best Case Scenario

If insurance premiums continue to harden and the company executes additional accretive acquisitions, Brown & Brown could reach $140-145 by year-end. Accelerated organic growth above 15% would provide further upside catalyst.

Worst Case Scenario

A severe economic recession could temporarily slow organic growth to mid-single digits and impact acquisition opportunities, potentially causing the stock to retreat to the $100-105 range. However, the essential nature of insurance provides significant downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.2

Favorable

Brown & Brown offers an attractive combination of defensive characteristics and growth potential. With approximately $8.50 downside risk versus $18 upside potential in our base case (and potentially more in our bull case), the risk/reward profile remains favorable despite the stock’s strong YTD performance.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Copper & Gold Mining

$51.27

+6.4% on Friday

Analysis

Freeport-McMoRan has emerged as one of the best performers during the recent market turbulence, with shares surging 14.4% this past week. As one of the world’s largest copper producers, FCX offers dual exposure to both industrial growth (through copper demand for electrification, AI infrastructure, and renewable energy) and inflation hedging (through its gold production).

The copper market fundamentals remain exceptionally strong, with projected deficits through 2025 and beyond as electrification trends accelerate globally. Freeport’s impressive portfolio of low-cost, long-life assets positions it ideally to capitalize on copper’s structural bull market. Additionally, its gold production provides a valuable hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty—particularly important in the current tariff-volatile environment.

The company recently provided a Q1 2025 operational update indicating production is on track, though unit costs are running approximately 5% higher than January guidance due to inflationary pressures. However, these cost increases are being more than offset by rising copper and gold prices, setting the stage for significant free cash flow generation.

Price Targets

$40 $65

Current Price $51.27

1-Day Target $52.50

3-Day Target $53.75

5-Day Target $55.00

30-Day Target $58.00

90-Day Target $62.00

Stop Loss $46.50

Best Case Scenario

In a scenario where copper prices exceed $5.50/lb due to accelerated electrification demand and potential supply disruptions, Freeport could reach $70-75 by year-end. Additional upside could come from higher gold prices if inflation persists.

Worst Case Scenario

A severe global recession could temporarily suppress copper demand and push prices down to $4.00/lb, potentially causing the stock to retreat to the $40-42 range. However, limited new copper supply coming online provides a floor for prices.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.3

Favorable

Freeport-McMoRan presents a compelling opportunity with approximately $4.77 downside risk versus $10.73 upside potential in our base case, with significantly more upside potential in our bull case. The company’s unique position at the intersection of electrification trends and inflation protection makes it an ideal portfolio diversifier in the current environment.

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

Technology Infrastructure & Solutions

$92.45

+3.8% on Friday

Analysis

Dell Technologies has experienced substantial volatility in 2025, with the stock down 16.65% year-to-date but showing strong recovery potential after gaining 14.4% this past week. As a leading provider of AI-optimized servers and enterprise infrastructure, Dell is strategically positioned at the intersection of two powerful trends: enterprise AI adoption and on-premises computing resurgence.

The company’s AI server business is experiencing explosive growth, with order backlog exceeding $2.9 billion in its most recent quarter. Dell’s proprietary cooling technologies and engineering expertise give it a competitive advantage in delivering high-performance computing solutions for AI workloads. While tariffs present some supply chain challenges, Dell’s global manufacturing footprint provides flexibility to mitigate impacts.

The recent market pullback has created an attractive entry point for Dell, with the stock trading at approximately 12x forward earnings despite projected revenue growth crossing the $104 billion mark in fiscal year 2026 and a 20% increase in EPS from $7.80 to $9.40. The company’s robust free cash flow generation also supports continued shareholder returns.

Price Targets

$75 $140

Current Price $92.45

1-Day Target $94.30

3-Day Target $98.50

5-Day Target $102.00

30-Day Target $112.00

90-Day Target $130.00

Stop Loss $85.00

Best Case Scenario

If Dell’s AI server business continues to accelerate beyond current expectations and tariff impacts prove manageable, the stock could reach $150-160 by year-end. Corporate IT spending recovery in the second half of 2025 would provide additional upside.

Worst Case Scenario

Extended tariff disruptions could delay AI deployments and impact Dell’s supply chain, potentially pushing the stock down to the $78-82 range. However, the company’s diversified business model and strong services revenue provide meaningful downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:5.0

Highly Favorable

Dell offers one of the most compelling risk/reward profiles in our coverage universe, with approximately $7.45 downside risk versus $37.55 upside potential. The recent pullback provides an excellent entry point into a company benefiting from structural AI tailwinds with a valuation significantly below peers.

CME Group Inc. (CME)

Financial Exchanges & Market Infrastructure

$243.75

+1.9% on Friday

Analysis

CME Group has demonstrated remarkable resilience amidst market volatility, with the stock up 7.8% year-to-date while broader indices have struggled. As the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group actually benefits from market volatility through increased trading volumes, making it a unique countercyclical investment in the current tariff-volatile environment.

The company reported record trading volumes in Q1 2025, with particularly strong performance in interest rate and equity index products as market participants sought to manage risk. International expansion is also accelerating, with record Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) average daily volume up 20% and Asia Pacific (APAC) volume also up 20% year-over-year.

CME’s business model is largely insulated from tariff impacts, with high operating margins and strong recurring revenue from market data. For the full fiscal 2025, CME is expected to deliver adjusted EPS of $10.72, representing a 4.5% increase from $10.26 in fiscal 2024. The company’s dividend yield of approximately 2.7% provides additional appeal for income-oriented investors.

Price Targets

$220 $300

Current Price $243.75

1-Day Target $246.00

3-Day Target $250.00

5-Day Target $254.00

30-Day Target $265.00

90-Day Target $285.00

Stop Loss $230.00

Best Case Scenario

If market volatility remains elevated and interest rate uncertainty persists, CME could reach $300-310 by year-end. The company’s expansion into new product categories and international markets could drive additional growth beyond current expectations.

Worst Case Scenario

A return to low volatility market conditions could temporarily suppress trading volumes, potentially causing the stock to retreat to the $225-230 range. However, the company’s diverse product mix and global presence limit downside potential.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:3.0

Favorable

CME Group presents a compelling opportunity with approximately $13.75 downside risk versus $41.25 upside potential. The company’s unique position as a beneficiary of market volatility makes it an ideal portfolio diversifier in the current uncertain environment, while its dividend yield provides income support.

W.R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)

Property & Casualty Insurance

$66.93

+2.5% on Friday

Analysis

W.R. Berkley has demonstrated impressive resilience in 2025’s volatile market, with the stock outperforming the broader financial sector. As a specialized property & casualty insurer, the company benefits from the “hard” insurance market environment (rising premiums) while being largely insulated from tariff impacts, making it a defensive play with growth characteristics.

The company has established a reputation for disciplined underwriting and innovative specialty insurance products that command premium pricing. W.R. Berkley’s focus on niche markets enables it to maintain combined ratios (a key measure of insurance profitability) consistently below industry averages. Analysts recently highlighted the company’s “sticky price hikes” and elevated demand for property/casualty insurance as key drivers for continued outperformance in 2025.

W.R. Berkley is set to report Q1 2025 earnings on April 21, with analysts anticipating solid results despite some industry-wide catastrophe losses. The company’s diverse specialty insurance portfolio provides natural hedging against various loss scenarios, while its investment portfolio benefits from higher interest rates.

Price Targets

$60 $80

Current Price $66.93

1-Day Target $67.50

3-Day Target $68.75

5-Day Target $70.00

30-Day Target $73.00

90-Day Target $76.00

Stop Loss $63.00

Best Case Scenario

If insurance pricing continues to harden and the company delivers superior underwriting results, W.R. Berkley could reach $80-82 by year-end. A positive Q1 earnings surprise could provide an immediate catalyst for upside.

Worst Case Scenario

Increased catastrophe losses or signs of insurance pricing softening could pressure the stock to the $61-63 range. However, the company’s disciplined underwriting approach and specialty focus provide significant downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.3

Favorable

W.R. Berkley offers an attractive balance of defensive characteristics and growth potential. With approximately $3.93 downside risk versus $9.07 upside potential, the risk/reward profile remains compelling, particularly for investors seeking financial sector exposure with lower volatility than banking stocks.

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Industrial Distribution

$78.01

+4.2% on Friday

Analysis

Fastenal has demonstrated impressive resilience amidst recent market volatility, with the stock gaining significant ground on Friday following the company’s Q1 2025 earnings report. As a leading distributor of industrial supplies, Fastenal sits at the nexus of industrial activity—providing a real-time window into manufacturing and construction trends while maintaining pricing power that helps offset tariff impacts.

The company’s Q1 2025 results showed modest but steady growth, with net sales increasing 3.4% year-over-year to $1.96 billion despite one fewer selling day in the quarter. While this growth rate was modest, it demonstrates Fastenal’s ability to navigate a challenging industrial environment. The company’s digital sales initiatives and Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI) technologies continue to gain traction, providing a competitive moat against both traditional competitors and e-commerce threats.

Fastenal’s management provided important insights during its earnings call regarding tariff strategies, noting they have already implemented targeted price adjustments while expanding their FMI footprint. The company’s vast network of 3,400+ locations and extensive on-site presence at customer facilities (over 1,600 active sites) enables it to maintain strong customer relationships and pricing power despite macroeconomic challenges.

Price Targets

$70 $88

Current Price $78.01

1-Day Target $78.75

3-Day Target $79.50

5-Day Target $80.50

30-Day Target $82.00

90-Day Target $86.00

Stop Loss $74.50

Best Case Scenario

If industrial activity accelerates in the second half of 2025 and Fastenal continues to gain market share through its digital initiatives, the stock could reach $90-92 by year-end. The company’s ability to pass through tariff-related price increases would provide additional upside.

Worst Case Scenario

A manufacturing recession induced by extended tariff impacts could temporarily pressure growth rates into negative territory, potentially causing the stock to retreat to the $70-72 range. However, the company’s variable cost structure provides significant downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:2.3

Favorable

Fastenal offers an attractive balance of defensive characteristics and growth potential. With approximately $3.51 downside risk versus $7.99 upside potential, the risk/reward profile remains favorable for investors seeking industrial exposure with less cyclicality than traditional manufacturers.

State Street Corporation (STT)

Financial Services & Asset Management

$88.45

+2.1% on Friday

Analysis

State Street has demonstrated impressive resilience amidst recent market volatility, with the stock showing strong recovery potential after the sector-wide banking pullback. As one of the world’s leading providers of financial services to institutional investors, State Street benefits from several defensive characteristics that make it attractive in the current tariff-volatile environment.

The company’s business model is centered around custody, clearing, and asset management services, which generate stable fee-based income rather than relying on interest rate spreads. This fee-based focus insulates State Street from some of the pressures facing traditional banks. Additionally, the company has minimal direct exposure to tariff impacts, with its global presence allowing operational flexibility.

State Street’s recent research reports on market signals for 2025 highlight several structural opportunities the company is well-positioned to capitalize on, including the continued growth of passive investing, demand for ESG solutions, and the digital transformation of financial services. With approximately $40 trillion in assets under custody and administration, State Street benefits from significant scale advantages and network effects.

Price Targets

$78 $132

Current Price $88.45

1-Day Target $90.00

3-Day Target $92.50

5-Day Target $95.00

30-Day Target $102.00

90-Day Target $120.00

Stop Loss $82.00

Best Case Scenario

If market conditions stabilize and assets under management grow faster than expected, State Street could reach $130-135 by year-end. The company’s technology initiatives and potential for increased capital returns would provide additional catalysts.

Worst Case Scenario

A severe market correction could temporarily impact fee revenue through reduced asset values, potentially causing the stock to retreat to the $78-80 range. However, the company’s stable custody business provides significant downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:4.9

Highly Favorable

State Street presents one of the most compelling risk/reward profiles in the financial sector, with approximately $6.45 downside risk versus $31.55 upside potential. The company’s fee-based business model and technology investments create a resilient earnings stream with significant growth potential.

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

Networking & Enterprise Technology

$57.35

+1.8% on Friday

Analysis

Cisco Systems presents a compelling opportunity as a relatively defensive technology play with significant upside potential in the current tariff-volatile environment. As the global leader in networking equipment and enterprise technology solutions, Cisco benefits from several structural tailwinds including AI infrastructure buildout, cybersecurity demand, and the ongoing enterprise digital transformation.

The company’s recent Q2 fiscal 2025 earnings exceeded expectations, prompting management to raise its full-year EPS guidance to $3.68-$3.74 from the previous $3.60-$3.66 range. Cisco’s transition toward more software and subscription-based revenue (now over 35% of total revenue) has created a more resilient business model with improved visibility and margins.

While tariffs could create some supply chain challenges, Cisco’s global manufacturing footprint and pricing power provide significant flexibility to navigate these headwinds. The company’s strong balance sheet, with over $20 billion in cash and investments, provides both defensive characteristics and optionality for strategic acquisitions or increased shareholder returns.

Price Targets

$50 $80

Current Price $57.35

1-Day Target $58.00

3-Day Target $59.50

5-Day Target $61.00

30-Day Target $66.00

90-Day Target $72.00

Stop Loss $53.00

Best Case Scenario

If AI-driven demand accelerates faster than expected and tariff impacts prove manageable, Cisco could reach $75-80 by year-end. The company’s ongoing shift to software and subscriptions could drive multiple expansion closer to software peer valuations.

Worst Case Scenario

Extended tariff disruptions could delay enterprise IT spending and impact margins, potentially pushing the stock down to the $52-54 range. However, the company’s strong balance sheet and diversified customer base provide meaningful downside protection.

Risk/Reward Assessment

Risk/Reward Ratio:

1:3.4

Favorable

Cisco offers an attractive balance of stability and growth potential, with approximately $4.35 downside risk versus $14.65 upside potential. The company’s 2.86% dividend yield further enhances the investment case by providing income support while investors wait for capital appreciation.

Investment Strategy for the Week Ahead

As we navigate the ongoing market volatility triggered by trade tensions, our investment strategy focuses on three key principles:

Quality Over Speculation

Focus on companies with strong balance sheets, defensible market positions, and pricing power that can navigate trade disruptions effectively.

Sector Diversification

Balance portfolio exposure across both defensive sectors (insurance, infrastructure) and selective growth opportunities (semiconductor, technology) to hedge against volatility.

Strict Risk Management

Implement defined stop-loss levels and position sizing appropriate to each stock’s volatility profile to protect capital during unpredictable market swings.

The upcoming week will be critical as more companies report earnings and provide guidance that factors in the evolving trade situation. We recommend investors maintain a disciplined approach, gradually building positions in our recommended stocks rather than deploying capital all at once.

Remember that market volatility, while unsettling, often creates compelling opportunities for long-term investors. Our top 10 stock recommendations provide a balanced approach to navigating the current environment, with companies that can withstand near-term pressures while positioning for long-term growth.

TickerTen

Professional Stock Analysis

Disclaimer

The information contained in this report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. You should not treat any of the report’s content as such. TickerTen does not recommend that any security should be bought, sold, or held by you, and nothing in this report should be construed as an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

© 2025 TickerTen. All rights reserved.

April 12, 2025

TickerTen Daily Market Report – April 11, 2025

Market Overview: Yesterday’s Action

The U.S. stock market experienced a significant selloff on Thursday, April 10, 2025, as concerns over the Trump administration’s trade policies returned to the forefront. The major indices gave back a substantial portion of Wednesday’s historic rally, which had been fueled by President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on certain tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, closing at 39,593.66. The S&P 500 tumbled 3.5% to 5,268.05, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered the most, sinking 4.3% to 16,387.31.

The market’s volatility stemmed from the White House’s clarification of its plan for a massive 145% tariff specifically targeting China, even as it paused tariffs for other trading partners. This announcement triggered renewed fears of a full-scale trade war between the world’s two largest economies, with China reportedly preparing retaliatory measures.

Technology companies with significant exposure to Chinese manufacturing were hit particularly hard. Meanwhile, defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and certain healthcare stocks demonstrated relative resilience amid the broader market turbulence.

Market Declines

Dow: -2.5% (-1,014.79 points)
S&P 500: -3.5% (-188.85 points)
Nasdaq: -4.3% (-737.66 points)

Key Market Drivers

Trump administration clarified 145% tariff on China
Looming retaliatory measures from Beijing
Tech stocks with China exposure hit hardest
Defensive sectors showed relative stability

Today’s Market: April 11, 2025

U.S. markets opened lower on Friday as investors continued to assess the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China. However, stocks have shown some resilience and staged a modest recovery from the worst of yesterday’s losses, with defensive sectors and companies less exposed to international trade disruptions showing relative strength.

As of mid-morning trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.25%, the S&P 500 was lower by 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was trading near flat, showing signs of stabilizing after Thursday’s steep decline.

China has announced retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. imports, though the scope appears more targeted than some analysts had feared. This measured response has provided some relief to the markets, though volatility remains elevated as traders digest new developments.

The financial sector is in focus today with several major banks reporting first-quarter earnings. Healthcare stocks are also performing well following recent positive developments in Medicare reimbursement rates, providing a bright spot amidst the turbulence.

Morning Trading

Dow Jones: -0.25%
S&P 500: -0.1%
Nasdaq: Flat

Sector Strength

Healthcare: +0.8%
Consumer Staples: +0.5%
Defense: +0.9%
Energy: +0.3%

Our analysis suggests that while markets remain highly sensitive to trade-related headlines, stocks with strong domestic revenue streams and those in defensive sectors are likely to outperform in the near term as the trade situation develops.

Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now

Our research team has identified these 10 stocks as particularly attractive investments in the current market environment. Each recommendation includes detailed analysis, price targets, risk assessment, and strategic guidance.

Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Defense & Aerospace

$468.68

+$4.35 (+0.93%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$475	$483	$490	$520	$570

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.2

Stop Loss: $445

Analysis

Lockheed Martin has shown remarkable resilience during recent market volatility, gaining 5.23% on Wednesday and only giving back a fraction of those gains during Thursday’s broad market selloff. The stock is up over 8% in the past week as investors seek defensive positions amid trade war concerns.

The company is benefiting from increased global defense spending and has minimal exposure to Chinese manufacturing, making it an ideal hedge against tariff-induced market disruptions. With a forward dividend yield of 3.05% and a price target consensus of $520.53, LMT offers both income and growth potential.

The best-case scenario sees LMT reaching $600 within 90 days as defense spending increases globally. Worst-case scenario suggests a floor around $430 if broader market conditions deteriorate significantly.

Coca-Cola (KO)

Consumer Staples

$71.01

+$0.25 (+0.35%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$71.50	$72.75	$74.25	$77.50	$83.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.8

Stop Loss: $67.50

Analysis

Coca-Cola has emerged as a defensive stronghold in the current market environment, gaining nearly 3% during Wednesday’s rally and continuing to show strength with a 0.81% gain on Thursday despite the broader market selloff. The stock is up approximately 2% for the week, demonstrating its counter-cyclical qualities.

As a consumer staples giant with global brand recognition and stable cash flows, KO offers investors a safe haven during periods of market turbulence. The company’s limited exposure to manufacturing tariffs and consistent dividend yield of approximately 3% make it an attractive option for income-focused investors.

In the best-case scenario, KO could reach $85 within 90 days as investors continue to rotate into defensive sectors. Worst-case scenario suggests limited downside around $65 if consumer spending weakens significantly.

Walmart (WMT)

Consumer Retail

$90.61

+$1.13 (+1.26%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$92.00	$94.25	$96.50	$103.00	$110.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5

Stop Loss: $85.00

Analysis

Walmart has demonstrated impressive resilience during the recent market volatility, particularly given its exposure to consumer spending. The stock gained ground yesterday despite the broader market decline, showcasing its defensive qualities and investor confidence in its business model.

While Walmart does face some exposure to tariffs through its supply chain, the company has been proactively diversifying its sourcing and has significant bargaining power with suppliers to mitigate price increases. Additionally, its focus on essential goods positions it well even in a potential economic slowdown.

UBS recently maintained a Buy rating while slightly lowering their price target to $110, which still represents over 20% upside from current levels. The best-case scenario could see WMT reaching $115 within 90 days as it continues to gain market share. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $82 if consumer spending weakens dramatically.

Chevron (CVX)

Energy

$134.98

+$0.75 (+0.56%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$136.50	$140.00	$143.25	$152.00	$165.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.3

Stop Loss: $128.00

Analysis

Chevron has emerged as one of the strongest performers in the energy sector in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of 15.5%. The stock has shown remarkable stability during the recent market turbulence, actually gaining ground on Thursday when most sectors were in decline.

The company benefits from a diversified global energy portfolio and limited exposure to tariff risks. With stable oil prices and strong cash flow generation, Chevron continues to return capital to shareholders through its robust dividend (currently yielding approximately 4%) and share repurchases.

Geopolitical tensions, while concerning for global markets, often provide tailwinds for energy stocks as supply concerns push oil prices higher. In the best-case scenario, CVX could reach $175 within 90 days if oil prices strengthen further. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $125 if global growth concerns intensify.

Microsoft (MSFT)

Technology

$381.35

-$4.11 (-1.07%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$387.00	$395.00	$405.00	$425.00	$460.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.1

Stop Loss: $360.00

Analysis

Microsoft represents a relatively safer technology play in the current market environment. While the stock has experienced volatility along with the broader tech sector, it has demonstrated greater resilience than many of its peers, particularly those with higher Chinese manufacturing exposure.

The company’s diverse revenue streams across cloud computing (Azure), productivity software (Office 365), and enterprise solutions provide stability and ongoing growth opportunities regardless of trade tensions. Microsoft’s focus on AI integration across its product suite continues to drive innovation and market share gains.

Although the stock is currently down from its 52-week high of $468.35, the current price represents an attractive entry point with approximately 20% upside potential over the next 90 days. The best-case scenario could see MSFT reaching $475 within this timeframe as AI investments continue to pay off. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $350 if tech sector rotation accelerates.

Procter & Gamble (PG)

Consumer Staples

$163.56

+$2.48 (+1.54%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$165.00	$168.00	$172.00	$178.00	$185.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.5

Stop Loss: $157.00

Analysis

Procter & Gamble represents one of the most defensive plays in our top picks list. The stock has demonstrated remarkable resilience during recent market volatility, actually gaining ground during Thursday’s broad market selloff and continuing its upward momentum today.

As a consumer staples giant with a portfolio of essential everyday products, P&G benefits from consistent consumer demand regardless of economic conditions. The company’s pricing power allows it to offset inflationary pressures, and its global footprint provides diversification against regional economic weakness.

With a robust dividend yield of approximately 2.5% and a history of consistent dividend increases spanning over 60 years, PG offers both defensive characteristics and reliable income. In the best-case scenario, the stock could reach $190 within 90 days as investors continue to seek safety. Worst-case scenario suggests limited downside with support around $155.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Healthcare

$435.25

+$7.30 (+1.71%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$440.00	$448.00	$455.00	$475.00	$515.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.0

Stop Loss: $415.00

Analysis

UnitedHealth Group has emerged as a standout performer in the healthcare sector following the recent announcement of higher-than-expected Medicare reimbursement rates for 2026. The stock rallied over 4% earlier this week on this news and has continued to show strength amid broader market volatility.

As the largest health insurer in the United States, UNH benefits from minimal exposure to international trade tensions while enjoying tailwinds from favorable regulatory developments. The company’s diverse business model spans health insurance, pharmacy benefits management, and healthcare delivery services, providing multiple growth avenues.

Recent favorable Medicare Advantage rate adjustments have alleviated a major concern for investors, clearing the path for sustained growth. In the best-case scenario, UNH could reach $530 within 90 days as the healthcare sector continues to outperform. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $400 if broader market weakness persists.

TransDigm Group (TDG)

Aerospace & Defense

$1,298.20

-$18.87 (-1.43%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$1,320	$1,350	$1,380	$1,450	$1,580

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5

Stop Loss: $1,220

Analysis

TransDigm Group has emerged as one of the top performers in the aerospace and defense sector in 2025, benefiting from both strong commercial aerospace recovery and increased defense spending globally. Despite today’s slight pullback, the stock has shown remarkable strength, up nearly 7% yesterday when most of the market was declining.

The company’s business model of supplying highly engineered, proprietary aerospace components provides it with significant pricing power and high margins. With approximately 90% of its products being sole-sourced, TDG enjoys a wide economic moat and limited competition, resulting in sustained profitability even during challenging economic periods.

RBC Capital recently raised its price target for TDG to $1,580, citing the company’s strong financial performance and robust growth outlook. In the best-case scenario, the stock could reach $1,600 within 90 days as aerospace and defense spending continues to increase. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $1,200 if economic concerns intensify.

EQT Corporation (EQT)

Energy

$38.27

+$0.65 (+1.73%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$39.00	$40.50	$42.00	$44.50	$48.00

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.1

Stop Loss: $35.50

Analysis

EQT Corporation has emerged as one of the best-performing energy stocks of 2025, with a year-to-date gain of 15.9%. As the largest natural gas producer in the United States, EQT is strategically positioned to benefit from increasing global demand for cleaner energy sources and potential supply constraints in Europe.

The company’s operations in the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale formations provide access to some of the lowest-cost natural gas reserves in North America. This cost advantage, combined with improving natural gas prices and disciplined capital allocation, has led to strengthening free cash flow and increasing shareholder returns.

EQT’s limited exposure to international trade tensions and focus on domestic energy production makes it a relatively safer energy play in the current market environment. In the best-case scenario, the stock could reach $50 within 90 days if natural gas prices strengthen further. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $33 if energy prices broadly decline.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Healthcare/Pharmaceuticals

$753.70

+$12.65 (+1.71%)

Price Targets

1 Day	3 Day	5 Day	30 Day	90 Day
$765	$780	$795	$825	$895

Risk Assessment

Low

High

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.8

Stop Loss: $715.00

Analysis

Eli Lilly continues to be a standout performer in the healthcare sector, with the stock showing remarkable resilience during market volatility. The company’s leadership in diabetes and obesity treatments, particularly its GLP-1 drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, has positioned it at the forefront of one of the fastest-growing pharmaceutical segments.

Demand for Lilly’s weight loss and diabetes medications continues to outstrip supply, creating a robust growth runway for the next several years. The company also boasts a strong pipeline of other innovative therapies, including promising Alzheimer’s treatments, providing multiple potential catalysts for future growth.

With minimal exposure to Chinese manufacturing or tariff concerns, Lilly represents a strong defensive healthcare play with significant growth potential. Analysts at U.S. News have identified LLY as their top healthcare pick for 2025, with a consensus price target suggesting over 30% upside potential. In the best-case scenario, LLY could reach $950 within 90 days as demand for its GLP-1 medications continues to surge. Worst-case scenario suggests support around $700 if market conditions deteriorate significantly.

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy

As we navigate through this period of heightened market volatility driven by escalating trade tensions, our investment strategy focuses on quality companies with strong fundamentals, limited exposure to Chinese manufacturing, and defensive characteristics that can weather economic uncertainty.

The stocks on our recommendation list predominantly fall into three categories:

Defensive Stalwarts: Companies like Procter & Gamble, Coca-Cola, and Walmart that provide essential products or services with relatively stable demand regardless of economic conditions.
Beneficiaries of Current Geopolitical Environment: Defense and energy stocks like Lockheed Martin, TransDigm Group, and Chevron that tend to perform well during periods of global tension.
Innovation Leaders with Limited China Exposure: Companies like Microsoft, UnitedHealth Group, and Eli Lilly that are driving significant innovations in their respective sectors while having relatively limited exposure to Chinese manufacturing or markets.

For investors looking to position their portfolios defensively while maintaining upside potential, we recommend a balanced approach with exposure to each of these categories. The weighted average risk/reward ratio across our recommendations is approximately 1:2.7, suggesting significant upside potential relative to downside risk.

As the trade situation evolves, we expect market volatility to persist in the near term. However, companies with strong fundamentals and limited exposure to the direct impacts of tariffs should continue to outperform. We advise investors to use market pullbacks as opportunities to accumulate high-quality names like those on our recommendation list.

Key Takeaways:

Focus on companies with limited exposure to Chinese manufacturing
Prioritize defensive sectors and stable cash flow generators
Use market volatility as an opportunity to accumulate high-quality stocks
Maintain a balanced portfolio with exposure to defense, consumer staples, healthcare, and selective technology
Implement appropriate stop-loss levels to protect capital during ongoing volatility

Disclaimer:

This report has been prepared by TickerTen for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the analysts and are subject to change without notice. TickerTen has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate.

This report is not intended to constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Readers are cautioned that no investment strategy can guarantee success and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

April 11, 2025

TickerTen Market Analysis – April 10, 2025

TickerTen

Professional Market Analysis

Daily Stock Report

April 10, 2025

Market Overview

S&P 500

5,374.26 -2.1%

Dow Jones

40,092 -1.4%

Nasdaq

16,892 -2.9%

Markets are experiencing a significant pullback today after yesterday’s historic rally, as investors reassess the implications of President Trump’s tariff pause announcement. While the pause provides short-term relief, concerns about long-term trade policies remain. Additionally, today’s inflation data has introduced a new element into market calculations.

Key Drivers Today

Profit-taking after yesterday’s historic surge
Continued uncertainty about long-term trade policies
Better-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 2.4%)
Treasury yields stabilizing (10-year at 4.31%)
Technical selling as markets test support levels

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment has shifted from yesterday’s euphoria to a more cautious stance as investors digest the complexities of the tariff situation and reassess valuations after the significant rally.

Fear & Greed Index: Neutral (54)

VIX Volatility: Elevated (28.6)

Yesterday’s Historic Rally (April 9, 2025)

S&P 500

+9.52% Best day since 2008

Dow Jones

+2,963 pts +7.87%

Nasdaq

+12.0% Tech-led surge

Yesterday marked one of the most extraordinary trading sessions in recent history, with the S&P 500 posting its third-largest gain since World War II. The catalyst for this remarkable surge was President Trump’s unexpected announcement of a 90-day pause on his “reciprocal tariffs” for most nations (excluding China). This policy pivot triggered a massive relief rally across global markets.

Key Factors Behind the Rally

Trump’s unexpected tariff pause for 90 days relieving immediate economic pressure
Short covering amplifying market gains as bearish positions were unwound
Technical breakouts triggering algorithmic buying
Global market coordination with European and Asian markets also rallying
Bond yield stabilization after recent spikes

Sector Performance

Technology +14.2%

Semiconductors +16.8%

Consumer Discretionary +11.4%

Financials +8.7%

Healthcare +7.3%

ARK Perspective

While yesterday’s rally was undoubtedly impressive, we at TickerTen view it through a lens of cautious optimism. The tariff pause, while positive for short-term market sentiment, does not resolve the underlying trade tensions. For innovation-focused investors, this volatility presents both challenges and opportunities. The companies best positioned to navigate this environment are those with robust business models, strong cash positions, and disruptive technologies that address large addressable markets regardless of trade policies.

Today’s Market Pullback (April 10, 2025)

After yesterday’s exuberance, markets are experiencing a notable pullback today as investors reassess the implications of the tariff pause and take profits after the historic gains. While inflation data came in better than expected, providing some support, markets are giving back a portion of yesterday’s advances.

Factors Driving Today’s Pullback

Profit-taking after extraordinary gains
Reality check on the temporary nature of the tariff pause
Concerns about eventual tariff implementation after the 90-day period
Technical resistance levels triggering selling
Lingering uncertainty about China trade relations, which remain under tariffs

Sector Weakness Today

Technology -3.2%

Semiconductors -3.8%

Consumer Discretionary -2.4%

Communication Services -2.1%

Energy -1.8%

Treasury Market Update

The bond market is showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. The 10-year Treasury yield has pulled back to 4.31%, down from yesterday’s peak of 4.5%. This moderation in yields reflects both the inflation data released today and a general flight to safety amid the equity market pullback.

2-Year

3.88%

-7 bps

5-Year

4.02%

-8 bps

10-Year

4.31%

-8 bps

30-Year

4.83%

-9 bps

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, today’s pullback was expected given the magnitude of yesterday’s gains. The S&P 500 is finding support near its 50-day moving average (5,280), while the Nasdaq is testing support at 16,800. These levels will be crucial for determining if this is merely a healthy consolidation or the beginning of a more significant correction.

Key S&P 500 Support

5,280

Key Nasdaq Support

16,800

VIX Level

28.6

Inflation Data (March 2025)

Headline CPI

2.4% vs 2.6% expected

Year-over-year change

Core CPI

2.8% vs 3.0% expected

Excludes food & energy

Monthly CPI

-0.1% vs +0.1% expected

Month-over-month change

This morning’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March came in better than expected, showing inflation cooling to a six-month low of 2.4% year-over-year. This represents meaningful progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and has significant implications for monetary policy and market expectations.

Positive Inflation Trends

Headline inflation (2.4%) at lowest level in six months
Core inflation (2.8%) showing continued moderation
Monthly deflation (-0.1%) indicating price pressures are easing
Housing inflation slowing to 3.2% from 3.8% in February
Transportation costs down 1.2% month-over-month

Inflation Concerns

Tariff impacts not yet reflected in data (March predates tariff announcements)
Services inflation remains stubborn at 3.4% year-over-year
Food prices continue to rise at 2.9% annually
Medical care costs accelerating (+0.4% month-over-month)
Uncertainty about second-order effects of trade policies

Fed Policy Implications

The better-than-expected inflation data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to move forward with interest rate cuts in 2025. Markets are now pricing in a 68% probability of a rate cut at the June meeting, up from 52% yesterday. However, the Fed will likely take a cautious approach given the uncertain impact of trade policies on future inflation readings.

Current Fed Funds Rate

4.50-4.75%

June Cut Probability

68%

Year-End Rate Projection

3.75-4.00%

Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

In the current market environment, characterized by heightened volatility and shifting trade policies, we’ve identified 10 high-potential stocks that offer compelling risk-reward profiles. These selections combine strong fundamental business models with attractive entry points created by recent market dislocations.

TickerTen Methodology

Our stock selection process combines quantitative analysis with a qualitative assessment of business models, competitive positioning, and growth potential. We focus on companies with strong innovation profiles, sustainable competitive advantages, and the ability to perform well regardless of near-term trade tensions. Our price targets are derived from discounted cash flow models with sensitivity analysis around key variables.

1. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure

$114.33 +18.7% Today

Background & Analysis

NVIDIA continues to dominate the AI GPU market with its data center revenue growing 78% year-over-year in Q4 2025. The recent selloff due to trade concerns has created an exceptional entry point for this AI infrastructure leader. While the stock has rebounded sharply today, it remains 23.8% below its 52-week high.

Investment Thesis

Unmatched position in AI compute with 95%+ market share in training GPUs
Next-gen Blackwell architecture driving enterprise adoption and upgrades
Limited direct China exposure (~15% of revenue) compared to peers
Strong balance sheet with $31B in cash and minimal debt
Expanding into new markets including automotive, edge computing, and robotics

Best Case Scenario

AI demand accelerates beyond expectations, H100/Blackwell supply constraints ease, and trade tensions resolve, pushing NVDA to $200+ by year-end (75% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Expanded chip restrictions targeting China, combined with AI spending slowdown, could drive the stock to $80 support level (-30%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$118	+3.2%
3 Day	$122	+6.7%
5 Day	$126	+10.2%
30 Day	$137	+19.8%
90 Day	$155	+35.6%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.4

Recommended Stop Loss

$92.50 (-19.1%)

2. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Software & Cloud Computing

$387.80 -1.5% Today

Background & Analysis

Microsoft continues to execute its AI-first strategy, with Azure Cloud growing at 30%+ and AI services driving incremental growth. The stock has pulled back 10% from recent highs, creating an attractive entry point for this digital economy cornerstone.

Investment Thesis

Azure’s AI capabilities driving accelerated enterprise cloud adoption
Copilot monetization across Office 365, security, and developer tools
Strong recurring revenue base providing stability during economic uncertainty
Strategic investments in quantum computing, healthcare AI, and industrial metaverse
Robust balance sheet with $136B cash and AAA credit rating

Best Case Scenario

Copilot adoption exceeds expectations, Azure growth reaccelerates, and gaming division outperforms, pushing the stock to $550 by year-end 2025 (42% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Cloud spending slowdown combined with AI ROI concerns and regulatory headwinds could push MSFT down to $330 (-15%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$392	+1.1%
3 Day	$398	+2.6%
5 Day	$405	+4.4%
30 Day	$425	+9.6%
90 Day	$460	+18.6%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.8

Recommended Stop Loss

$358.00 (-7.7%)

3. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

E-Commerce & Cloud Services

$178.52 -2.1% Today

Background & Analysis

Amazon has successfully navigated its cost-cutting initiatives while maintaining growth in its core e-commerce business. AWS has returned to 20%+ growth rates, and advertising revenue continues to surge. The stock has pulled back from recent highs, providing an attractive entry point.

Investment Thesis

AWS profit margins expanding as generative AI workloads accelerate
Advertising business growing 30%+ annually, now a $50B+ revenue stream
Operating margin improvements from efficiency initiatives continuing
Prime membership growth resilient despite price increases
Healthcare initiatives (One Medical, pharmacy) showing traction

Best Case Scenario

AWS accelerates to 25%+ growth, ad business continues to expand, and e-commerce margins improve further, pushing AMZN to $260 (~45% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Consumer spending weakens significantly, cloud competition intensifies, and tariffs impact logistics costs, potentially driving the stock down to $150 (-16%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$183	+2.5%
3 Day	$188	+5.3%
5 Day	$192	+7.6%
30 Day	$205	+14.8%
90 Day	$230	+28.8%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.6

Recommended Stop Loss

$162.00 (-9.3%)

4. Sea Limited (SE)

Digital Entertainment, E-commerce & Financial Services

$105.57 -3.4% Today

Background & Analysis

Sea Limited has successfully pivoted to profitability while maintaining strong growth in its core Southeast Asian markets. Shopee (e-commerce) and SeaMoney (fintech) are now both profitable, while Garena (gaming) continues to generate substantial cash flow. Despite being up 195% in the past year, the stock remains 68% below its all-time high.

Investment Thesis

Dominant e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia with profitable unit economics
Digital financial services growing rapidly with 60M+ quarterly paying users
Gaming division stabilizing with new titles in development pipeline
Minimal direct exposure to US-China trade tensions
$6.8B cash position provides runway for strategic initiatives

Best Case Scenario

Continued e-commerce market share gains, accelerating fintech adoption, and successful new game launches could drive SE to $180+ (70% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Economic slowdown in core markets, increased competition from TikTok Shop, and gaming revenue declines could push SE down to $75 (-29%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$110	+4.2%
3 Day	$115	+8.9%
5 Day	$118	+11.8%
30 Day	$132	+25.0%
90 Day	$150	+42.1%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.1

Recommended Stop Loss

$88.00 (-16.6%)

5. Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)

Enterprise Software & CRM

$244.18 -1.8% Today

Background & Analysis

Salesforce has transformed from a pure CRM provider to a comprehensive digital transformation platform. Recent cost-cutting measures have significantly improved operating margins, while AI initiatives like Einstein GPT are driving new growth. The stock has pulled back 14% YTD, creating an attractive entry point.

Investment Thesis

AI-driven growth through Einstein GPT and Data Cloud
Margin expansion from operational efficiency initiatives continuing
Cross-selling opportunity across integrated platform (Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce)
Slack integration driving workplace collaboration growth
Limited exposure to direct tariff impacts

Best Case Scenario

AI monetization exceeds expectations, margins expand beyond targets, and enterprise spending remains resilient, potentially driving CRM to $350+ (43% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Severe enterprise spending slowdown, competitive pressure from Microsoft, and AI investment overruns could push CRM down to $200 (-18%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$250	+2.4%
3 Day	$258	+5.7%
5 Day	$265	+8.5%
30 Day	$290	+18.8%
90 Day	$325	+33.1%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.5

Recommended Stop Loss

$220.00 (-9.9%)

6. Intuit Inc. (INTU)

Financial Software & Services

$585.38 -2.3% Today

Background & Analysis

Intuit continues to dominate the tax preparation and small business accounting software market. Its AI-powered initiatives are transforming financial management for consumers and small businesses. Despite strong fundamentals, the stock has pulled back in 2025, offering an attractive entry point.

Investment Thesis

AI integration across product suite driving efficiency and customer value
QuickBooks and Mailchimp synergies creating comprehensive SMB platform
Credit Karma acquisition expanding consumer finance ecosystem
Resilient business model with 80%+ subscription revenue
Limited exposure to international trade tensions

Best Case Scenario

AI-driven productivity gains accelerate growth, Credit Karma expands financial offerings, and SMB platform adoption exceeds expectations, pushing INTU to $750 (28% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Small business formation slows significantly, Credit Karma faces increased fintech competition, and tax simplification reduces TurboTax demand, potentially pushing INTU down to $500 (-15%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$595	+1.6%
3 Day	$608	+3.9%
5 Day	$615	+5.1%
30 Day	$647	+10.5%
90 Day	$690	+17.9%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.0

Recommended Stop Loss

$542.00 (-7.4%)

7. Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

Creative Software & Digital Experience

$385.71 -1.5% Today

Background & Analysis

Adobe has successfully integrated AI capabilities across its creative and marketing platforms. While the stock has declined significantly (-30% over the past year), its core business remains strong with 90%+ recurring revenue. The pullback offers a compelling entry point for this market leader in creative software.

Investment Thesis

Firefly AI and generative capabilities enhancing creative workflows
Digital Experience platform gaining market share in enterprise marketing
Price increases successfully implemented across product portfolio
Strong cash flow generation supporting stock repurchases
Limited exposure to tariff-related disruptions

Best Case Scenario

AI monetization exceeds expectations, subscription growth accelerates, and margin expansion continues, potentially pushing ADBE to $550 (43% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Intensified competition from AI-powered creative tools, pricing pressure, and enterprise spending cutbacks could drive ADBE down to $330 (-14%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$392	+1.6%
3 Day	$402	+4.2%
5 Day	$410	+6.3%
30 Day	$440	+14.1%
90 Day	$490	+27.0%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.6

Recommended Stop Loss

$350.00 (-9.3%)

8. PTC Inc. (PTC)

Industrial Software & IoT

$136.74 -2.4% Today

Background & Analysis

PTC is a leader in industrial software, PLM (Product Lifecycle Management), and IoT solutions. The company has successfully transitioned to a subscription model and is benefiting from industrial digital transformation trends. The stock has underperformed the broader market in 2025, creating an attractive entry point.

Investment Thesis

Industrial IoT adoption accelerating, driving PTC’s core growth
AI integration enhancing product offerings across PLM and CAD
Strategic partnership with Rockwell Automation expanding market reach
Strong ARR growth (~11% YoY) with expanding margins
Manufacturing reshoring trends benefiting core customer base

Best Case Scenario

Industrial IoT and digital twin adoption accelerates, SaaS transition completes ahead of schedule, and profit margins expand faster than expected, driving PTC to $200+ (46% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Manufacturing recession intensifies, industrial capital spending freezes, and competitive pressures increase, potentially pushing PTC down to $110 (-20%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$140	+2.4%
3 Day	$145	+6.0%
5 Day	$148	+8.2%
30 Day	$162	+18.5%
90 Day	$180	+31.6%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2.0

Recommended Stop Loss

$118.00 (-13.7%)

9. Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Consumer Electronics & Services

$172.42 -1.3% Today

Background & Analysis

Apple has faced headwinds in 2025, with the stock down 13% year-to-date amid concerns about iPhone sales and Chinese market challenges. However, the company’s ecosystem strength, services growth, and AI initiatives offer significant upside potential. Current tariff uncertainties have created an attractive entry point for this blue-chip tech giant.

Investment Thesis

Apple Intelligence representing major AI integration across product ecosystem
Services business growing 20%+ annually with expanding margins
Wearables segment (Watch, AirPods) continuing strong growth trajectory
Massive $70B+ annual buyback program supporting EPS growth
Supply chain diversification reducing China manufacturing dependence

Best Case Scenario

AI features drive major iPhone upgrade cycle, services growth accelerates, and China tensions ease, potentially pushing AAPL to $225 (30% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

iPhone sales disappoint, China market share declines significantly, and tariffs impact margins, potentially driving AAPL down to $150 (-13%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$175	+1.5%
3 Day	$180	+4.4%
5 Day	$184	+6.7%
30 Day	$195	+13.1%
90 Day	$210	+21.8%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.2

Recommended Stop Loss

$158.00 (-8.4%)

10. AppLovin Corporation (APP)

Mobile Technology & Ad Software

$254.80 -3.8% Today

Background & Analysis

AppLovin has transformed from a mobile app monetization company to an AI-powered advertising software platform. Despite skyrocketing 400% from its 2023 lows to early 2025 highs, the stock has recently pulled back 50%. This correction provides an opportunity to invest in a high-growth company at a more reasonable valuation.

Investment Thesis

AXON AI platform revolutionizing mobile ad optimization
Software Platform revenue growing 100%+ YoY with expanding margins
Strategic pivot away from lower-margin app business improving profitability
Privacy changes (iOS) creating market share opportunities
Limited exposure to tariff or China-related disruptions

Best Case Scenario

AXON AI platform continues gaining market share, software revenue growth exceeds expectations, and margins expand further, potentially driving APP back to its highs near $510 (100% upside).

Worst Case Scenario

Mobile advertising market contracts significantly, competitive pressures intensify, and AI investments fail to deliver expected returns, potentially pushing APP down to $180 (-29%).

Price Targets

Timeline	Target	Change
1 Day	$265	+4.0%
3 Day	$280	+9.9%
5 Day	$292	+14.6%
30 Day	$325	+27.6%
90 Day	$380	+49.1%

Risk Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1.7

Recommended Stop Loss

$215.00 (-15.6%)

Conclusion & Market Outlook

Today’s market pullback following yesterday’s historic rally reflects the uncertain nature of the current trading environment. The combination of better-than-expected inflation data and the temporary tariff pause provides some grounds for optimism, but significant challenges remain. We believe the market will continue to experience heightened volatility as it processes the implications of evolving trade policies and economic data.

Bullish Factors

Cooling inflation supports potential Fed rate cuts
90-day tariff pause provides economic breathing room
Strong corporate earnings despite macroeconomic headwinds
AI adoption accelerating across multiple sectors
Consumer spending remaining relatively resilient

Bearish Risks

Uncertainty about tariff policies after the 90-day pause
Continued tensions with China impacting global supply chains
Potential delayed impact of higher interest rates on economy
Valuation concerns in certain market segments
Geopolitical tensions creating market uncertainty

TickerTen Strategic Positioning

In this environment, we advocate for a strategic approach that focuses on companies with strong competitive positions, healthy balance sheets, and exposure to secular growth trends that transcend near-term economic turbulence. Our top 10 stock picks represent companies that meet these criteria while offering attractive risk-reward profiles after recent market dislocations.

While near-term volatility is likely to persist, we believe patient investors who focus on fundamentals and use market pullbacks as buying opportunities will be rewarded. The innovation-driven disruption that characterizes today’s economy continues unabated, creating compelling investment opportunities for those with a long-term perspective.

April 10, 2025

Daily Stock Market Report – April 9, 2025

Executive Summary

The U.S. stock market continues to experience extreme volatility as the trade war between the United States and China escalates dramatically. Yesterday’s session saw one of the most significant intraday reversals in recent memory, while today’s trading is characterized by sector rotation as investors seek safety amid growing economic uncertainty.

“Market participants are witnessing a historic moment in global trade relations that has triggered unprecedented volatility across all major indices. The key to navigating this environment lies in strategic sector allocation and identifying companies with resilient business models.”

Market Performance: April 8, 2025

Dow Jones

37,645.59

-320.01 (-0.84%)

S&P 500

4,982.77

-79.48 (-1.57%)

Nasdaq

15,267.91

-335.35 (-2.15%)

Yesterday’s market action was nothing short of extraordinary, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average erasing a 1,461-point gain to close down 320 points. This remarkable reversal occurred as investors digested the implications of President Trump’s 104% tariff on Chinese imports and Beijing’s subsequent retaliatory measures. The S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, which each jumped more than 4% in morning trading, closed 1.6% and 2.2% lower, respectively.

The initial optimism stemmed from hopes of potential negotiations between the U.S. and China, but those hopes were dashed as the day progressed. Technology stocks were hit particularly hard, with semiconductor companies bearing the brunt of the selling pressure due to their significant exposure to China.

Today’s Market Action: April 9, 2025

As of midday trading, U.S. markets are showing mixed performance after China announced an 84% tariff on U.S. goods, up significantly from the previously announced 34%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down marginally, while the Nasdaq is showing surprising resilience with a slight gain. This divergence highlights the ongoing sector rotation as investors reposition their portfolios.

Defensive sectors including healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities are outperforming, while cyclical sectors remain under pressure. Bond yields have risen as investors reassess inflation expectations in light of higher import costs, putting additional pressure on interest-rate sensitive sectors.

Trading volume is elevated, with volatility indices near multi-year highs. Market breadth remains negative, with decliners outnumbering advancers by approximately 3-to-1 on the NYSE.

Key Market Drivers

Escalating Trade Tensions

The implementation of President Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, effective at midnight, has triggered an immediate 84% retaliatory tariff from China. This rapid escalation has renewed concerns about global supply chain disruptions and rising inflation, just as the economy was showing signs of stable growth.

Inflation Concerns

Markets are pricing in higher inflation expectations as tariffs are likely to increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses. The Fed’s anticipated policy response to rising inflation is creating additional uncertainty, with some analysts predicting a more hawkish stance in upcoming meetings.

Sector Rotation

Investors are rapidly reallocating capital from growth and technology stocks toward more defensive sectors and companies with less exposure to international trade. This rotation is creating both challenges and opportunities across various market segments.

Corporate Earnings Outlook

With Q1 earnings season about to begin, market participants are recalibrating expectations. Companies with significant exposure to China are likely to face earnings pressure, while those with primarily domestic operations may benefit from less direct impact.

Top 10 Stock Recommendations

In this challenging market environment, we’ve identified 10 stocks that offer attractive risk-reward profiles. Our recommendations balance defensive positioning with select growth opportunities that should outperform regardless of how the trade situation develops.

CVS Health (CVS)

Healthcare Defensive Dividend Yield: 3.2%

$67.61

+$3.76 (+5.89%)

Company Background

CVS Health is one of the largest integrated healthcare companies in the United States, combining retail pharmacy operations with health insurance services through its Aetna subsidiary. The company has over 9,900 retail locations and serves more than 110 million members through Aetna and other healthcare offerings.

Investment Thesis

CVS Health has emerged as a top S&P 500 performer in 2025, with year-to-date returns exceeding 50%. The stock has demonstrated remarkable resilience amid macro headwinds affecting the broader market. As one of the few companies benefiting in the current environment, CVS is positioned to continue its outperformance for several reasons:

The company’s defensive business model provides essential healthcare services that remain in demand regardless of economic conditions
Recent strategic initiatives to expand healthcare delivery through MinuteClinics and HealthHUBs are driving revenue growth
Integration synergies from the Aetna acquisition continue to exceed expectations
Minimal exposure to international markets insulates the company from trade war impacts

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$69.50	+2.8%
3 Days	$72.30	+6.9%
5 Days	$74.50	+10.2%
30 Days	$80.00	+18.3%
90 Days	$85.00	+25.7%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, CVS could reach $92 within 90 days (+36.1%) if healthcare continues to outperform amid market volatility and the company exceeds earnings expectations in its upcoming quarterly report. Additional upside could come from accelerated margin expansion in the pharmacy benefit management segment.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see CVS retreat to the $60 level (-11.3%) if broader market selling pressure intensifies or if prescription drug pricing reform legislation gains traction in Congress. However, even in this scenario, the company’s diversified revenue streams and essential services should provide downside protection.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $61.25, representing a 9.4% downside from current levels. This level corresponds to key technical support and allows for normal market volatility while protecting capital if our thesis proves incorrect.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With a potential upside of 25.7% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 9.4% to our stop loss, CVS offers an attractive risk/reward ratio of 2.7:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Microsoft (MSFT)

Technology AI Leader Cloud Computing

$357.86

-$1.82 (-0.5%)

Company Background

Microsoft is a global technology leader providing software, services, devices, and solutions that help individuals and businesses realize their full potential. The company has transformed itself under CEO Satya Nadella’s leadership, becoming a dominant cloud computing provider while maintaining its legacy software business.

Investment Thesis

Microsoft stock has pulled back significantly from its all-time highs, creating an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Despite testing 15-month lows, the company’s fundamental outlook remains strong, and Wall Street analysts maintain bullish price targets. Our investment case is built on:

Azure cloud business continues to grow at 25%+ rates despite a higher revenue base
AI integration across product lines creates sustainable competitive advantages
Enterprise software revenue streams provide stability during economic uncertainty
Strong balance sheet with over $100 billion in cash and short-term investments
Recent pullback presents a valuation opportunity relative to long-term growth potential

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$364.00	+1.7%
3 Days	$370.00	+3.4%
5 Days	$376.00	+5.1%
30 Days	$405.00	+13.2%
90 Days	$450.00	+25.7%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Microsoft could reach $500 (+39.7%) within 90 days if upcoming earnings exceed expectations and if trade tensions ease. The company’s AI initiatives, particularly through OpenAI integration, could accelerate revenue growth beyond current forecasts, justifying multiple expansion.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Microsoft decline to $320 (-10.6%) if enterprise IT spending slows significantly or if cloud growth decelerates more than expected. Further escalation of trade tensions could also pressure valuations across the technology sector.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $325, representing a 9.2% downside from current levels. This level represents significant technical support and protects against excessive losses should our thesis not play out as expected.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 25.7% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 9.2% to our stop loss, Microsoft offers an attractive risk/reward ratio of 2.8:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Amazon (AMZN)

E-commerce Cloud Computing AI/ML

$170.66

-$4.58 (-2.61%)

Company Background

Amazon has evolved from an online bookstore to a global e-commerce, cloud computing, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence leader. With diverse revenue streams including AWS, retail, subscription services, and advertising, Amazon has become one of the world’s most valuable companies.

Investment Thesis

Despite Amazon’s recent 11% decline amid tariff concerns, we see a compelling buying opportunity for several reasons:

AWS maintains dominant market share in cloud computing with substantial growth potential
Advertising business continues to scale, becoming a significant high-margin revenue source
Operational efficiencies and cost-cutting initiatives are expanding retail margins
AI investments, including its new Nova agent, position the company for next-generation services
Diversified business model provides resilience even if consumer spending weakens

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$175.00	+2.5%
3 Days	$180.00	+5.5%
5 Days	$185.00	+8.4%
30 Days	$200.00	+17.2%
90 Days	$220.00	+28.9%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Amazon could reach $255 (+49.4%) if trade tensions stabilize and the company’s Q2 earnings exceed expectations. Accelerated AWS growth and margin expansion could drive multiple expansion back toward historical levels.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Amazon decline to $145 (-15.0%) if consumer spending weakens significantly or if cloud competition intensifies. Additional tariffs could pressure retail margins through higher costs for imported goods.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $152, representing an 11.0% downside from current levels. This level corresponds to a key support zone established during previous market corrections.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 28.9% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 11.0% to our stop loss, Amazon offers a favorable risk/reward ratio of 2.6:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Pitney Bowes (PBI)

Business Services E-commerce Enabler Dividend Yield: 3.5%

$7.96

-$0.33 (-3.98%)

Company Background

Pitney Bowes is a global technology company providing commerce solutions in the areas of shipping and mailing, data, and e-commerce. The company has successfully transformed from its traditional mailing business into a diversified commerce services provider with significant e-commerce logistics operations.

Investment Thesis

Pitney Bowes represents an undervalued growth opportunity with strong upside potential. The stock has been identified by multiple analysts as a top-ranked value and growth stock for April 2025. Our investment thesis is built on:

Digital transformation initiatives showing measurable success in driving profitable growth
E-commerce shipping and logistics segment growing at double-digit rates
Valuation metrics indicate the stock is significantly undervalued relative to peers
Strong management execution on strategic initiatives and cost optimization
Balance of growth potential with income through consistent dividend payments

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$8.15	+2.4%
3 Days	$8.50	+6.8%
5 Days	$9.00	+13.1%
30 Days	$10.50	+31.9%
90 Days	$12.00	+50.8%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Pitney Bowes could reach $15 (+88.4%) if e-commerce segment growth accelerates beyond expectations and if margin improvement initiatives deliver results faster than anticipated. Strategic partnerships or potential acquisition interest could provide additional upside catalysts.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Pitney Bowes decline to $6.50 (-18.3%) if e-commerce growth slows or if shipping costs escalate due to tariff impacts. Margin pressure could emerge if the transformation initiatives take longer than expected to yield results.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $6.75, representing a 15.2% downside from current levels. This level provides protection against a significant drawdown while allowing for normal volatility in a small-cap stock.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 50.8% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 15.2% to our stop loss, Pitney Bowes offers an exceptional risk/reward ratio of 3.3:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Albertsons (ACI)

Consumer Defensive Grocery Dividend Yield: 2.5%

$20.94

+$0.26 (+1.26%)

Company Background

Albertsons is one of the largest food and drug retailers in the United States, operating stores across 34 states under 20 well-known banners including Albertsons, Safeway, Vons, and Jewel-Osco. The company offers grocery products, general merchandise, health and beauty care products, pharmacy, fuel, and other items and services.

Investment Thesis

Albertsons represents a compelling defensive investment amid current market volatility. The stock has been identified by analysts as a top value pick during the current tariff-induced market turbulence. Our bullish view is based on:

Defensive business model that performs well during economic uncertainty
Strong digital transformation driving e-commerce growth above industry averages
Upcoming earnings release (April 15, 2025) expected to show solid results
Minimal international exposure insulates the company from direct tariff impacts
Attractive valuation with forward P/E ratio below industry average

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$21.35	+2.0%
3 Days	$21.75	+3.9%
5 Days	$22.25	+6.3%
30 Days	$23.85	+13.9%
90 Days	$25.50	+21.8%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Albertsons could reach $28 (+33.7%) if Q1 earnings significantly exceed expectations and if defensive consumer staples stocks continue to attract investment amid market volatility. Additional upside could come from improved operational efficiency initiatives.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Albertsons decline to $18.50 (-11.7%) if inflation pressures squeeze margins more than expected or if competition intensifies in key markets. Disappointing earnings guidance could also trigger short-term selling pressure.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $19.00, representing a 9.3% downside from current levels. This level corresponds to a significant support zone and the lower bound of the stock’s recent trading range.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 21.8% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 9.3% to our stop loss, Albertsons offers a solid risk/reward ratio of 2.3:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Philip Morris (PM)

Consumer Defensive Global Exposure Dividend Yield: 5.1%

$149.23

-$2.00 (-1.32%)

Company Background

Philip Morris International is one of the world’s leading tobacco companies, with products sold in over 180 markets. The company has been aggressively transforming its business toward reduced-risk products, particularly with its IQOS heated tobacco system, as it pursues a “smoke-free future” strategy.

Investment Thesis

Philip Morris represents an attractive investment opportunity with a compelling combination of defensive characteristics, income generation, and growth potential. The stock has increased by approximately 25% this year, demonstrating strong performance amid market volatility. Our bullish case is based on:

Strong pricing power provides inflation protection and stable cash flows
IQOS platform continues to gain market share globally, driving growth
Diversified geographic footprint reduces exposure to any single market’s risks
Generous dividend yield provides income while waiting for capital appreciation
Reduced-risk products represent long-term growth opportunity with higher margins

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$151.50	+1.5%
3 Days	$154.00	+3.2%
5 Days	$156.50	+4.9%
30 Days	$162.00	+8.6%
90 Days	$170.00	+13.9%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Philip Morris could reach $180 (+20.6%) if IQOS adoption accelerates and if defensive stocks continue to attract investor capital amid ongoing market volatility. Strong Q2 earnings and raised guidance could provide additional upside catalysts.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Philip Morris decline to $135 (-9.5%) if regulatory headwinds intensify or if currency fluctuations negatively impact reported results. A broader market recovery that shifts investor sentiment away from defensive names could also create selling pressure.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $140, representing a 6.2% downside from current levels. This level provides protection while acknowledging the stock’s relatively low volatility and defensive characteristics.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 13.9% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 6.2% to our stop loss, Philip Morris offers a favorable risk/reward ratio of 2.2:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Newmont (NEM)

Gold Mining Inflation Hedge Dividend Yield: 2.7%

$44.18

+$0.57 (+1.31%)

Company Background

Newmont is the world’s largest gold mining company, with operations in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa. Following its acquisition of Goldcorp and subsequent portfolio optimization, the company now focuses on its core mines producing approximately 5.5 million ounces of gold annually.

Investment Thesis

Newmont represents an attractive investment opportunity in the current environment, offering both a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. Our investment thesis is built on:

Gold prices have been rising amid heightened economic uncertainty and trade tensions
Portfolio optimization has improved the company’s cost profile and production outlook
Inflation and currency hedges in place protect against macroeconomic risks
Strong balance sheet with low debt and substantial liquidity
Proven management team with track record of operational excellence

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$45.00	+1.9%
3 Days	$46.50	+5.3%
5 Days	$48.00	+8.6%
30 Days	$52.00	+17.7%
90 Days	$58.00	+31.3%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Newmont could reach $65 (+47.1%) if gold prices continue to rise amid escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty. Operational improvements exceeding guidance and potential additional dividend increases could provide further upside.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Newmont decline to $38 (-14.0%) if gold prices retreat on easing macroeconomic concerns or if production costs increase more than expected. Operational challenges at key mines could also negatively impact results.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $39.50, representing a 10.6% downside from current levels. This level represents significant technical support from previous price action and allows for normal volatility in the gold mining sector.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 31.3% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 10.6% to our stop loss, Newmont offers an attractive risk/reward ratio of 3.0:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

AT&T (T)

Telecommunications Defensive Dividend Yield: 5.8%

$26.83

+$0.24 (+0.90%)

Company Background

AT&T is one of the world’s largest telecommunications companies, providing wireless and wireline services to millions of consumers and businesses across the United States. Following the divestiture of its media assets, the company has refocused on its core telecommunications business, emphasizing 5G network expansion and fiber broadband services.

Investment Thesis

AT&T has been one of the market’s top performers over the past year, with the stock rising approximately 59%. Despite this impressive run, we believe further upside is likely based on:

Successful strategic refocus on core telecommunications business driving improved margins
Strong 5G network deployment creating competitive advantages and new revenue streams
Fiber broadband expansion targeting high-growth markets with limited competition
Deleveraging progress strengthening balance sheet and financial flexibility
Attractive dividend yield providing income in an uncertain market environment

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$27.10	+1.0%
3 Days	$27.50	+2.5%
5 Days	$28.00	+4.4%
30 Days	$29.30	+9.2%
90 Days	$32.00	+19.3%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, AT&T could reach $35 (+30.5%) if Q2 earnings exceed expectations and if management raises free cash flow guidance above the current $16 billion target for 2025. Accelerated subscriber growth and margin expansion could drive multiple expansion.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see AT&T decline to $24 (-10.5%) if competitive pressures intensify or if capital expenditures increase more than expected. Disappointing subscriber growth or ARPU trends could also trigger profit-taking after the stock’s strong 12-month performance.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $24.50, representing an 8.7% downside from current levels. This level corresponds to key technical support and allows for normal volatility while protecting against a larger decline.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 19.3% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 8.7% to our stop loss, AT&T offers a solid risk/reward ratio of 2.2:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Defense Aerospace Dividend Yield: 2.7%

$463.20

+$11.85 (+2.63%)

Company Background

Lockheed Martin is the world’s largest defense contractor, specializing in aerospace, defense, security, and advanced technologies. The company’s primary business segments include Aeronautics (F-35 fighter jet), Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space Systems.

Investment Thesis

Despite a challenging start to 2025 with shares down approximately 9%, Lockheed Martin represents an attractive defensive investment amid increasing global tensions and market volatility. Our bullish case is based on:

Growing global defense spending driven by geopolitical tensions and security concerns
Long-term contracts and massive order backlog providing revenue visibility
Relatively insulated from economic cycles and trade war concerns
Strong free cash flow generation supporting dividend growth and share repurchases
Trading at a discount to historical valuation multiples

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$467.00	+0.8%
3 Days	$472.00	+1.9%
5 Days	$476.00	+2.8%
30 Days	$490.00	+5.8%
90 Days	$520.00	+12.3%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, Lockheed Martin could reach $550 (+18.7%) if defense spending increases more than expected amid escalating global tensions. Strong Q2 earnings and raised guidance could provide additional upside catalysts, particularly if F-35 production and delivery issues are resolved.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see Lockheed Martin decline to $425 (-8.2%) if budget constraints impact defense spending or if production issues persist longer than expected. Export restrictions related to the trade war could also create headwinds for international sales.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $435, representing a 6.1% downside from current levels. This level provides protection while acknowledging the stock’s relatively low volatility and defensive characteristics.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 12.3% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 6.1% to our stop loss, Lockheed Martin offers a solid risk/reward ratio of 2.0:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Healthcare Defensive Dividend Yield: 1.5%

$553.08

+$28.38 (+5.41%)

Company Background

UnitedHealth Group is the largest health insurance company in the United States, serving approximately 51 million individuals. The company operates through two main segments: UnitedHealthcare (health insurance) and Optum (healthcare services), which includes pharmacy benefit management, healthcare delivery, and healthcare technology solutions.

Investment Thesis

UnitedHealth Group jumped 5.41% yesterday, outperforming in a down market after Medicare Advantage payments were boosted to $25 billion. This recent performance highlights the company’s resilience and defensive characteristics. Our investment thesis is based on:

Favorable Medicare Advantage payment rates driving stronger-than-expected revenue growth
Integrated model combining insurance with healthcare services creates competitive advantages
Optum segment growing faster than the legacy insurance business with higher margins
Data analytics and technology investments enhancing operational efficiency
Defensive healthcare business typically performs well during economic uncertainty

Price Targets

Timeframe	Target Price	Potential Return
1 Day	$560.00	+1.3%
3 Days	$570.00	+3.1%
5 Days	$580.00	+4.9%
30 Days	$600.00	+8.5%
90 Days	$650.00	+17.5%

Best Case Scenario

In the best case scenario, UnitedHealth could reach $685 (+23.9%) if Q2 earnings exceed expectations and if the company raises full-year guidance. Accelerated growth in the Optum segment and successful integration of recent acquisitions could drive multiple expansion.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst case scenario would see UnitedHealth decline to $510 (-7.8%) if medical cost ratios deteriorate or if regulatory pressures intensify. Political rhetoric around healthcare reform could also create headline risk, especially as the 2026 election cycle approaches.

Stop Loss Recommendation

Set a stop loss at $515, representing a 6.9% downside from current levels. This level provides protection while allowing for normal market volatility.

Risk/Reward Ratio

With potential upside of 17.5% to our 90-day target and downside risk of 6.9% to our stop loss, UnitedHealth offers a solid risk/reward ratio of 2.5:1.

Low Risk Medium Risk High Risk

Investment Strategy Overview

Our recommended portfolio is deliberately weighted toward defensive sectors with limited exposure to direct tariff impacts, while still maintaining select growth opportunities. The strategy balances:

Defensive Positioning

Healthcare (CVS, UNH), consumer staples (PM, ACI), and telecommunications (T) provide stability and income in uncertain markets. These sectors typically outperform during economic slowdowns and periods of heightened volatility.

Selective Growth

Technology leaders (MSFT, AMZN) with strong competitive positions and substantial cash reserves can weather short-term disruptions while maintaining long-term growth trajectories. Current valuations offer attractive entry points after recent pullbacks.

Inflation Protection

Gold exposure (NEM) and companies with pricing power (PM, LMT) provide protection against potential inflation stemming from higher import costs due to tariffs. These assets typically perform well when inflation expectations rise.

Value Opportunities

Select value stocks (PBI, T) that have been overlooked by the market offer substantial upside potential with reasonable risk profiles. These companies have solid fundamentals and catalysts for revaluation.

Near-Term Market Outlook

The market is likely to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks as investors digest the implications of the escalating trade war. Several key factors will influence market direction:

Trade Negotiations: Any signs of potential negotiations or compromise between the U.S. and China could trigger significant relief rallies. Conversely, further escalation would likely intensify selling pressure.
Economic Data: Upcoming inflation reports will be crucial as markets assess the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. Strong employment data could provide some support to markets by indicating economic resilience.
Earnings Season: Q1 earnings reports beginning in mid-April will provide the first glimpse of how companies are navigating the new tariff environment. Management guidance will be particularly important.
Federal Reserve Response: Any shift in Fed policy expectations in response to higher inflation or economic slowdown could have significant market implications.

We maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, believing that quality companies with strong fundamentals will weather the current volatility and emerge stronger. Our portfolio recommendations are positioned to provide both downside protection and upside participation.

Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions and estimates constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The investments discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial, and investors should consider whether they can afford to lose some or all of their investment.

Price targets represent the analyst’s assessment of a fair price for the security within the specified timeframe and should be considered as guiding estimates only. The analyst may not be correct in their assessment, and the security’s price may not reach the target level for a variety of reasons.

April 9, 2025

Markets Edge Higher as Investors Weigh Tariff Developments

Yesterday’s Market Recap

Today’s Market Drivers

Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

1. Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Analysis

2. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Analysis

3. Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

Analysis

4. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

Analysis

5. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Analysis

6. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)

Analysis

7. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA)

Analysis

8. AT&T Inc. (T)

Analysis

9. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)

Analysis

10. Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)

Analysis

Market Outlook and Investment Strategy

Important Disclaimer

Market Overview

Key Market Indicators (as of 10:00 AM ET)

Yesterday’s Market Action

What’s Driving Today’s Market

TickerTen’s Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

Market Outlook and Strategy

Disclaimer:

Market Overview: A Week of Wild Swings

Weekly Market Stats

Key Market Drivers This Week

Tariff Volatility

Fed Outlook

Bank Earnings

Treasury Yields

Next Week Outlook

Earnings Season Acceleration

Economic Data Releases

Trade Negotiations

Fed Commentary

Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

Analysis

Price Targets

Best Case Scenario

Worst Case Scenario

Risk/Reward Assessment

VeriSign, Inc. (VRSN)

Analysis

Price Targets

Best Case Scenario

Worst Case Scenario

Risk/Reward Assessment

Brown & Brown, Inc. (BRO)

Analysis

Price Targets

Best Case Scenario

Worst Case Scenario

Risk/Reward Assessment

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX)

Analysis

Price Targets

Best Case Scenario

Worst Case Scenario

Risk/Reward Assessment

Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL)

Analysis

Price Targets

Best Case Scenario

Worst Case Scenario

Risk/Reward Assessment

CME Group Inc. (CME)

Analysis

Price Targets

Best Case Scenario